my bones telling me that this time, the economy.......

[socrates469bc]

....... will not have a v-shaped recovery like 2003.

 

@meng.huat kor kor, u r rite to worry abt the economy going into a L-shaped stagnation.

[meng.huat]

i anyhow say one... i am just a KGK PHV driver. not satki kia

[socrates469bc]

7 minutes ago, meng.huat said:

i anyhow say one... i am just a KGK PHV driver. not satki kia

 

phv drivers r a good forward-looking indicator for economic outlook, better than the statisticians and econometricians in mof.

[aaur4man]

15 minutes ago, socrates469bc said:

....... will not have a v-shaped recovery like 2003.

 

@meng.huat kor kor, u r rite to worry abt the economy going into a L-shaped stagnation.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but it has not been  recovered V shape since the last downturn right 

[ManOfTheHour]

Im very scared for the economy. Its been a tough year. If i had no savings, I’d be depressed. 
Really hope things pick up soon

[socrates469bc]

8 minutes ago, aaur4man said:

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but it has not been  recovered V shape since the last downturn right 

 

the last major downturn was in 2008 and the recovery is built on liquidity from a prolonged low interest rate environment.

 

this resulted in rampant asset inflation after 2013 as the credit created was channeled into the financial markets rather than into productive assets.

 

on hindsight, this recovery is a illusory v-shaped recovery with no solid fundamentals.

 

however, the nearest comparative to a wuhan virus struck economy will be the 2003 sars episode for many economists.

 

however, this current episode is different from 2003 as there was no massive debt buildup in many major economies.

 

this time round, many of the major economies have massive debt-filled liquidity and china is now a major economy.

[socrates469bc]

3 minutes ago, ManOfTheHour said:

Im very scared for the economy. Its been a tough year. If i had no savings, I’d be depressed. 
Really hope things pick up soon

 

with kee chiu and heng man at the helm, do u think they have the mental capabilities to run the economy????

[meng.huat]

https://www.pmo.gov.sg/cabinet/mr-chan-chun-sing

Educated at the Raffles Institution (1982 to 1985) and Raffles Junior College (1986 to 1987), Mr Chan was awarded the SAF (Overseas) and President’s Scholarship to study Economics at Christ’s College, Cambridge University in the United Kingdom in 1988 and graduated with First Class Honours. Mr Chan was awarded the Distinguished Master Strategist Award 1998 by the US Army Command and Staff College. In 2005, he completed the Sloan Fellows Programme at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology under the Lee Kuan Yew Scholarship.

 

 

https://www.pmo.gov.sg/cabinet/mr-heng-swee-keat

Prior to entering politics in May 2011, Mr Heng was the Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), where he received the "Central Bank Governor of the Year in Asia-Pacific" Award by the British magazine The Banker. He has served in various other public service positions, including appointments in the Singapore Police Force, as the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Trade and Industry, as the Chief Executive Officer of the Trade Development Board, and as the Principal Private Secretary to then-Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew from 1997 to 2000. In 2001, Mr Heng was awarded the Gold Medal in Public Administration, and the Meritorious Medal in 2010 for his contribution to the public service in Singapore.

Mr Heng has an MA in Economics from Cambridge University. He also holds a Masters in Public Administration from the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.

 

 

6 minutes ago, socrates469bc said:

 

with kee chiu and heng man at the helm, do u think they have the mental capabilities to run the economy????

 

[ManOfTheHour]

10 minutes ago, socrates469bc said:

 

with kee chiu and heng man at the helm, do u think they have the mental capabilities to run the economy????

Very depressing. I know people who have been told to rest cos no job. 

[The_King]

you must be boning me, a talking bone

 

 

hahahaha

 

 

i got gold, no worry, i can withstand it, but i fear for my sibling. they live pay cheque  by cpay heque  

[The_King]

24 minutes ago, ManOfTheHour said:

Im very scared for the economy. Its been a tough year. If i had no savings, I’d be depressed. 
Really hope things pick up soon

lucky you have, do keep saving

[ManOfTheHour]

Just now, The_King said:

lucky you have, do keep saving

Yup i feel very heng but wish I did not have to dip into savings yet. 
Raising a child during corona is really not cheap 

[The_King]

4 minutes ago, ManOfTheHour said:

Yup i feel very heng but wish I did not have to dip into savings yet. 
Raising a child during corona is really not cheap 

as misfrumini. i have been saving all my life. in short in dkgk term, i always live like a poor man be it i got job or no job

 

just worry for my sibling

[ManOfTheHour]

5 minutes ago, The_King said:

as misfrumini. i have been saving all my life. in short in dkgk term, i always live like a poor man be it i got job or no job

 

just worry for my sibling

Hope your siblings are coping well

[Homelander]

31 minutes ago, ManOfTheHour said:

Very depressing. I know people who have been told to rest cos no job. 

 

yeah my fren from inflight catering been ask to take no pay leave for 2 weeks to help company reduce cost...coz many flights cancellation

[socrates469bc]

31 minutes ago, meng.huat said:

https://www.pmo.gov.sg/cabinet/mr-chan-chun-sing

Educated at the Raffles Institution (1982 to 1985) and Raffles Junior College (1986 to 1987), Mr Chan was awarded the SAF (Overseas) and President’s Scholarship to study Economics at Christ’s College, Cambridge University in the United Kingdom in 1988 and graduated with First Class Honours. Mr Chan was awarded the Distinguished Master Strategist Award 1998 by the US Army Command and Staff College. In 2005, he completed the Sloan Fellows Programme at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology under the Lee Kuan Yew Scholarship.

 

 

https://www.pmo.gov.sg/cabinet/mr-heng-swee-keat

Prior to entering politics in May 2011, Mr Heng was the Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), where he received the "Central Bank Governor of the Year in Asia-Pacific" Award by the British magazine The Banker. He has served in various other public service positions, including appointments in the Singapore Police Force, as the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Trade and Industry, as the Chief Executive Officer of the Trade Development Board, and as the Principal Private Secretary to then-Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew from 1997 to 2000. In 2001, Mr Heng was awarded the Gold Medal in Public Administration, and the Meritorious Medal in 2010 for his contribution to the public service in Singapore.

Mr Heng has an MA in Economics from Cambridge University. He also holds a Masters in Public Administration from the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.

 

 

 

 

one is ex-mata and the other is ex-jlb, never have to report pnl to shareholders.

 

and both dont know how to solve real-life problems.

[XianGe]

2 hours ago, Homelander said:

 

yeah my fren from inflight catering been ask to take no pay leave for 2 weeks to help company reduce cost...coz many flights cancellation

They should cater for public

[meng.huat]

18 hours ago, socrates469bc said:

 

@meng.huat kor kor, u r rite to worry abt the economy going into a L-shaped stagnation

 

I where got so satki can predict this? What did i post to make u say this?

[socrates469bc]

28 minutes ago, meng.huat said:

 

I where got so satki can predict this? What did i post to make u say this?

 

not long ago, u posted a question to me on whether wuhan virus will trigger a recession and i answered based on the sars experience, most likely a v-shaped recovery.

 

but after the events of the past mth, i changed my outlook.

 

as wuhan virus raged, there r several bonds of major chinese companies maturing first half of this yr and as most of the bonds r priced in usd, most likely the bonds r bot by foreign institutions.

 

with the tiong economy in stagnation, the creditors will most likely demand repayment, rather than rollover.

 

hence, there is a heightened risk of defaults which in turn will trigger a financial meltdown in tiongland and possibly spreading onto the other markets.

 

and the tiong central bank is having its hands tied as tiongland interest rate is at historical low while npl ratio is artificially low, rendering monetary policy ineffective.

 

this is also true for all major central banks.

[meng.huat]

9 minutes ago, socrates469bc said:

 

not long ago, u posted a question to me on whether wuhan virus will trigger a recession and i answered based on the sars experience, most likely a v-shaped recovery.

 

but after the events of the past mth, i changed my outlook.

 

as wuhan virus raged, there r several bonds of major chinese companies maturing first half of this yr and as most of the bonds r priced in usd, most likely the bonds r bot by foreign institutions.

 

with the tiong economy in stagnation, the creditors will most likely demand repayment, rather than rollover.

 

hence, there is a heightened risk of defaults which in turn will trigger a financial meltdown in tiongland and possibly spreading onto the other markets.

 

and the tiong central bank is having its hands tied as tiongland interest rate is at historical low while npl ratio is artificially low, rendering monetary policy ineffective.

 

this is also true for all major central banks.

 

tiongland, EU and trumpland are burning cash to fight wuhan virus now. medical supplies, healthcare work OT wages. other supports...

Iran no cash, death toll high.

 

when everyone run out of cash and QE no longer works....

Edited March 6, 2020 by meng.huat

[socrates469bc]

1 minute ago, meng.huat said:

 

tiongland, EU and trumpland are burning cash to fight wuhan virus now.

Iran no cash, death toll high.

 

when everyone run out of cash and QE no longer works....

 

exactly and now as other major economies r hit with wuhan virus, their consumption will weakened for this yr.

 

this bloomberg article yesterday aptly described the current episode as a hit on both the demand and supply sides of the global economy.

 

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/global-economy-gripped-rare-twin-supplydemand-shock

 

pure coincidence as i was thinking lately that with wuhan raging in many of the tiongland's major export markets, even if tiongland recover the production level, who will buy the goods.

 

and this bloomberg article came out and it cleared my mind as to what i shld do.

[aaur4man]

6 minutes ago, socrates469bc said:

 

exactly and now as other major economies r hit with wuhan virus, their consumption will weakened for this yr.

 

this bloomberg article yesterday aptly described the current episode as a hit on both the demand and supply sides of the global economy.

 

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/global-economy-gripped-rare-twin-supplydemand-shock

 

pure coincidence as i was thinking lately that with wuhan raging in many of the tiongland's major export markets, even if tiongland recover the production level, who will buy the goods.

 

and this bloomberg article came out and it cleared my mind as to what i shld do.

 

What should salaried commoners do?

[socrates469bc]

6 minutes ago, aaur4man said:

 

What should salaried commoners do?

 

if u have been living like @The_King kor kor, then have savings to live on for a while.

 

if u have been working in front-line customer serving positions, try see if can switch to back office jobs.

 

those working in banking back office or compliance r most envious now since they will be the last to be axed in any job retrenchment now.

[The_King]

13 minutes ago, socrates469bc said:

 

if u have been living like @The_King kor kor, then have savings to live on for a while.

 

if u have been working in front-line customer serving positions, try see if can switch to back office jobs.

 

those working in banking back office or compliance r most envious now since they will be the last to be axed in any job retrenchment now.

not everyone can live like a beggar. you need super thick metal skin

 

 

how many dare to wear tore tshirt with hole and hole at arm pit area, bring own toilet paper as in the around toilet roll type when outing etc....

 

 

only the king is daring and dont give a F

Edited March 6, 2020 by The_King

[The_King]

32 minutes ago, aaur4man said:

 

What should salaried commoners do?

read my above post.