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SINGAPORE - Singapore’s exports shrank further in August, deepening July’s decline as both electronic and non-electronic products were hit by tariffs imposed by the US   Enterprise Singapore reiterated that it was watching the tariff fallout, and may revise its 2025 non-oil export forecast for Singapore if conditions worsen. Compared with a year earlier, non-oil domestic exports (Nodx) contracted by 11.3 per cent in August 2025. This follows a revised 4.7 per cent decline in the previous month. As a result, Nodx rose by 1.6 per cent in the first eight months of 2025.   The performance fell short of expectations, as economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.8 per cent increase in key exports for August. Ms Sheana Yue, an economist with Oxford Economics, said the August data was weaker than expected, likely because the rush to ship final orders before the US tariffs kicked in has started to taper.  Singapore’s resilience is set to diminish, she said.   The July and August trade data has reinforced her view that gross domestic product will contract in the third quarter on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis.   DBS economist Chua Han Teng said that while US reciprocal tariffs on imports from Singapore have been maintained at 10 per cent, the increase in duties for the Republic’s trading partners that kicked in from August likely filtered through the supply chain, weighing on external demand for Nodx. He said Singapore’s exports profile in the first two months of the second half of 2025 has weakened compared with the resilience seen in the first half of the year.   He expects more challenges and volatility amid an uncertain global trade landscape. Mr Chua said Singapore’s electronics and biomedical shipments remain vulnerable to the US’ planned tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. Electronics shipments fell by 6.5 per cent in August, ending 10 months of expansion. In July, electronics Nodx registered a 2.7 per cent increase. The drop was driven by disk media products and integrated circuits. Exports of parts of personal computers also fell. Mr Chua noted that electronics exports jumped 32.8 per cent in August 2024, the highest reading of that year, which made 2025’s growth look smaller by comparison. Non-electronics Nodx contracted by 13 per cent in August from a year earlier, following the 6.7 per cent decline in July.  Mr Chua said this marked the steepest fall since March 2024. The drop was driven by specialised machinery, as well as food preparations and petrochemicals. Only three out of Singapore’s top 10 export markets forecast an increase in shipments in August. Shipments to the US declined by 28.8 per cent in August, following the 42.8 per cent contraction in July, due to sharply lower exports in food preparations, specialised machinery and disk media products. Exports to China contracted by 21.5 per cent in August, after a 12.3 per cent decrease in July due to lower sales of specialised machinery, non-monetary gold and integrated circuits.  Unlike monetary gold exchanged among central banks worldwide, non-monetary gold refers to all other types of gold in circulation. It can take the form of coins, ingots, bars or powder.  Gold is also used as an industrial metal, and as a coating or thin bonding wires for most types of semiconductor chips. Nodx to Indonesia contracted by 39.6 per cent year on year in August, extending the 32.3 per cent decline in July due to non-monetary gold, petrochemicals and electrical machinery. Nodx to Taiwan, South Korea and the European Union went up, but at a slower pace than July.  Economists at Bank of America (BofA) noted that trans-shipment momentum in Singapore remained strong into August, despite the “eye-catching” drop in Nodx that month.  The monthly average of non-oil re-exports for July and August was nearly 9 per cent higher than the monthly average for the first quarter of 2025, showing that trans-shipment demand is still buoyant. Container throughput is up by nearly 1 per cent from the second quarter of 2025, hitting fresh all-time highs, reflecting Singapore’s entrenched hub role, they said. Sea cargo and vessel arrivals were also up by almost 2 per cent, they added. BofA has upgraded Singapore’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.9 per cent from 2.3 per cent previously. Maybank economists Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee reiterated their GDP growth forecast of 3.2 per cent for 2025 and 2 per cent for 2026.  They said that despite exports losing some momentum, other indicators suggest that a sharp and extended trade downturn remains unlikely. Singapore’s purchasing managers’ index – a barometer of the manufacturing industry’s health – rose from 49.9 points in July to 50 points. The electronics sector, which accounts for around 40 per cent of overall manufacturing output, was a bright spot, marking its third straight month in expansion territory.   The Maybank economists said that with the backdrop of broadening artificial intelligence demand, electronics Nodx will likely resume growth in September as the high base effects dissipate. Another reason to stay optimistic on exports and manufacturing is Singapore and the rest of Asean’s relative tariff advantage, which will support regional trade volumes. Falling interest rates, a construction boom and generous fiscal support will also help cushion the blow from the trade slowdown, they said. Other non-trade related indicators, including financial activities and property transactions, remain robust and suggest resilient GDP growth in the third quarter.  

The United States Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, so they will now be between 4.00 percent and 4.25 percent, as a slowing labour market stalls economic growth. The Fed, the US central bank, announced its decision on Wednesday afternoon.   Economists had widely expected a 25 basis point cut, with CME FedWatch — a group that tracks probability of monetary policy decisions — putting the odds at 96 percent. One basis point is one-hundredth of one percentage point. Before Wednesday, the Fed had last cut rates in December by 25 basis points, the third cut last year, taking its benchmark rate to between 4.25 percent and 4.50 percent, where it had held steady since. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has emphasised that uncertainty in the economy has kept the Fed cautious, arguing that maintaining rates gave policymakers flexibility as conditions shifted. The cut comes as a response to shifting economic conditions, following a slew of weak jobs reports showing a slowdown in growth in the labour market and a slight uptick in inflationary pressures. “Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated,” the central bank said in a press release. “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.”   In a press conference after the rate cut, Powell told reporters that a decline in both the supply and demand of workers is “unusual”, which he attributed to tariff and immigration policies. “The labour market is really cooling off,” Powell said. In its news release, the Fed also indicated that it was open to further cuts to the interest rate “as appropriate if risks emerge” that could impede its dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and lowering inflation to 2 percent. Investors had been waiting for indications from the central bank on whether it will cut interest rates two or three times for the rest of the year as economic uncertainty weighs on the US labour market and the broader economy while the costs of goods and services increase under tariff-driven pressures. Political pressure The latest cut comes at a time of heightened scrutiny and pressure on the Fed, which has long emphasised its independence from political pressure. But for months, US President Donald Trump has publicly attacked the central bank, mocking Powell as “too late Powell” over his cautious approach to cutting rates. At the same time, the Republican-led White House has sought to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who was appointed by former US President Joe Biden, a Democrat, citing alleged mortgage fraud. On Monday, a US appeals court blocked Trump from removing her. The administration has said it will challenge the ruling. “The president lawfully removed Lisa Cook for cause. The administration will appeal this decision and looks forward to ultimate victory on the issue,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said on Tuesday. That same day, Stephen Miran, chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisors, was sworn in to fill a temporary Fed seat left vacant by Adriana Kugler until January, while the White House searches for a permanent replacement. Miran pledged to act independently, but his close ties to the Trump administration — and his work as a fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute — have raised doubts. His Senate confirmation fell largely along party lines, 47–48, and Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska was the only Republican to oppose him. On Monday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called Miran “nothing more than Donald Trump’s mouthpiece at the Fed”. The Fed’s news release on Wednesday showed that Miran had pushed for a bigger rate cut of 50 basis points while the other members voted for a cut of 25 basis points. “There wasn’t widespread support at all for a 50 basis point cut today,” Powell told reporters in response to a question.   Powell was pressed on whether Miran, who has kept his position at the White House, would undermine the bank’s political independence. But he declined to comment apart from saying that the Fed maintains its independence. Markets respond As of 3pm in New York (19:00 GMT), US markets are mixed. The S&P 500 slumped by 0.6 percent and the Nasdaq by 1 percent, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 0.4 percent.

Finally on my third day I had a chance to have probably the only Vietnamese dish I like, PHO   This was the restaurant I was brought to         The condiments   My delicious pho   The fresh and wonderful beef slices       My best meal in Vietnam so far

I think the women were confused. They were expecting guys to pay but they forgot this is a woman's only club.