China GDP grows 6.1% in 2019, slowest rate in 29 years

[Yamato]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-GDP-grows-6.1-in-2019-slowest-rate-in-29-years?utm_campaign=RN%20Subscriber%20newsletter&utm_medium=daily%20newsletter&utm_source=NAR%20Newsletter&utm_content=article%20link&del_type=1&pub_date=20200117190000&seq_num=7&si=%%user_id%%

China GDP grows 6.1% in 2019, slowest rate in 29 years

Sliding birthrate, tariffs and weak manufacturing investment remain a drag
CK TAN, Nikkei staff writer
January 17, 2020 11:06 JST Updated on January 17, 2020 13:48 JST

 

Demand for key Chinese exports such as cellphones and PCs was sluggish in 2019.    © AP 

 

SHANGHAI -- China's gross domestic product grew at the slowest pace in 29 years in 2019, as weaker exports, investment and consumer spending weighed on the economy.

 

The 6.1% expansion marked a slowdown from the 6.6% growth seen the previous year, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. Growth in the last quarter of 2019 equaled the 6.0% logged in the July-September period.

 

The bureau said China will remain vigilant of mounting downward pressure from a global economic slowdown and domestic structural issues. The downward trend will not be helped by a sliding birthrate, rising unemployment and problems in the banking sector.

 

The 0.5 percentage point decline in the growth rate from the previous year is the biggest since a 1.7 point year-on-year slowdown in 2012. The rate of growth in 2019 was lower than the median 6.2% expansion forecast by economists surveyed by Nikkei, but within the 6% to 6.5% range set by the government.

 

"Economic activity picked up last month, helping to avert a further slowdown last quarter," Julian Evans-Pritchard and Martin Rasmussen wrote in an emailed note. "External headwinds should ease further in the coming quarters thanks to the 'Phase One' trade deal and a recovery in global growth. But we think this will be offset by a renewed slowdown in domestic demand, triggering further monetary easing."

 

Total retail sales of consumer goods including e-commerce slowed to 8%, from 9% in 2018, while fixed-asset investment including infrastructure and factory construction decreased to 5.4% from 5.9%.

 

Final quarter growth holding steady reflects the effect of fiscal stimulus, and respite from the trade war cease fire, said Zhu Chaoping of J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

 

China also unveiled data on Friday showing the nation's population growth rate (births minus deaths) falling to 3.34 per thousand in 2019 -- the lowest since 1961, and down from 3.81 the previous year. The decline in the fertility rate in an aging society is another headwind for economic growth.

 

The moderation in full-year growth reflected lower demand for Chinese goods, which has been dampened by the trade war with the U.S., and weaker global electronics orders, according to Rajiv Biswas, Asia chief economist at IHS Markit.

 

Exports for the year totaled $2.498 trillion, up 0.5% -- much slower growth than in 2018, largely due to a drop in shipments to the U.S.

 

Demand for key Chinese exports such as cellphones and PCs was sluggish. Exports of products subject to higher U.S. tariffs, such as furniture and textiles, also slumped

 

Despite a "phase-one" deal reached between Beijing and Washington on Wednesday, which will see the U.S. lower tariffs on $120 billion of Chinese goods in return for Beijing buying $40 billion worth of American farm goods, economists remained downbeat on China's growth outlook this year.

 

"While businesses and investors can afford to breath a sign of relief, after a difficult 2019, we still see risks to the China outlook as mainly weighted to the downside, given the fragile nature of the trade truce and the risks that still stalk China's financial markets," according to Tom Rafferty at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

 

More than 20 economists surveyed by Nikkei forecast a median 5.9% expansion in 2020, with many expressing concern about local governments' worsening fiscal positions and lackluster manufacturing investment.

 

"The pace of growth is expected to edge lower to below 6%, as ongoing structural reforms in the Chinese economy and the continued impact of [the] remaining U.S. tariffs of 25% on $250 billion of Chinese products remain a slight drag on the growth outlook," said Biswas.

 

More fiscal stimulus could be on the way, as the government said during a high-level economic work meeting last month that it will prioritize "stability" to mitigate rising domestic risks.

 

"Consumer spending has yet to pick up the baton from investment as an engine of growth," said Diana Choyleva, chief economist at Enodo Economics.

 

But the truce in the trade war with Washington may bring some temporary relief for business confidence, according to Fitch Ratings, which on Friday raised its outlook for GDP growth in 2020 to 5.9%, up 0.2 percentage points.
 

[socrates469bc]

the figure shld either halved or third since other economic numbers such as trade, consumption and manufacturing figures dont gel.

 

if my exports to us decreased more than 10% but overall is up 0.5%, that means there is negligible growth which brings up other doubts.

 

exports r ard 20% of the chinese economy and when exports to the us is down more than 10%, that means other destinations must take up the huge slack, which we dont see and how can overall be up when export-oriented factories along the coastal r closing.

 

secondly, consumption and private investment figures r not fantastic so they cannot be the one taking up the slack from trade.

 

if this growth is from infra building, this will be useless as the flow-on will be mitigated over time.

 

so this number is highly questionable.

[Satki]

Same. Over here we do massive hdb upgrading. Build monuments to honour the dead. Construct pitiful looking waterfall in a building. Pay massice salaries. Sell land.

 

The real economy like trade, manufacturing and even services looks mediocre.

 

Keep on withdrawing reserves. So did our halimah approve heng's budget or told him to go back and re work the numbers?

 

 

[socrates469bc]

1 hour ago, Satki said:

Same. Over here we do massive hdb upgrading. Build monuments to honour the dead. Construct pitiful looking waterfall in a building. Pay massice salaries. Sell land.

 

The real economy like trade, manufacturing and even services looks mediocre.

 

Keep on withdrawing reserves. So did our halimah approve heng's budget or told him to go back and re work the numbers?

 

 

 

exactly, instead of maintaining and upgrading the current infra, incompetent loong loong decided to undertake unneeded infra building the circle, downtown and thomson-east coast lines r underutilised becos either the area is better served by bas, the stations r too close to each other or the traffic flow is not there and promoting the unsustainable casino economy.

 

there is a reason why Pres Ong designed the ns and ew lines to be the backbones of the mrt system and any expansion shld be undertaken along these 2 lines instead of endless unnecessary building. 

Edited January 18, 2020 by socrates469bc

[The_King]

Same over here.

 

You look that the chinatown CNY market. You know ppl have already lose their spending power. 

 

 

This few yr, many retail  like on weekends, like it empty and no one spending much, instead more and more ppl go to JB.

 

This is why quiet com area was born

 

My co and I agree most ppl the walking in type go jb is because of reduce spending power. Who on earth like to wait 2 to 5 hr at the custom.

 

 

Even this cny, many of my co side all cutting down on spending

 

 

Just walk around, you will notice the different

Edited January 18, 2020 by The_King

[Satki]

The MRT system is now a Frankenstein system. looks like MRT is the only way they can think of to boost GDP

[Satki]

i easily clear Samsung walking app taking MRT to and from work

 

the amount of walking from one line to another

 

[The_King]

6 minutes ago, Satki said:

i easily clear Samsung walking app taking MRT to and from work

 

the amount of walking from one line to another

 

take bus la,

 

i dont know why so many ppl take mrt. i never taken mrt at all when i am alone for the year 2019, either to work or off day.

 

only with other ppl, i lan lan suck thumb then take mrt with them

[Satki]

no bus where i work. downtown stn area

[The_King]

9 minutes ago, Satki said:

no bus where i work. downtown stn area

what the street

[Satki]

2 minutes ago, The_King said:

what the street

 

 

dont know but building is asia square tower 

[chamfer]

1 minute ago, Satki said:

 

 

dont know but building is asia square tower 

Wah.... elite workplace.

[The_King]

3 minutes ago, Satki said:

 

 

dont know but building is asia square tower 

 

 

those area full of bus, where got no bus. here the bus outside  asia square tower 

 

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[Satki]

makan also elite. but see many eat at shenton house cos got cai png stalls

 

but its a social lesson

 

1. borderline neh talents eat at the vege shop in Shenton House

2. better off neh sometimes skip lunch or bring their own

3. better off neh once a while show off eating at those pub looking places

4. locals i think also broken into same categories

5. once a while company paying all chiong the atas Tao and other fancy places

 

but the queue at Ah Moy Street etc still huge

 

 

[The_King]

heng i cook my own there

[Satki]

2 minutes ago, The_King said:

 

 

those area full of bus, where got no bus. here the bus outside  asia square tower 

 

10

10e

57

70

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97

97e

100

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130

131

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I think those still must walk. the tower roads are damn narrow and also with construction, i dont see bus can navigate in there. but now i use EWL to Bugis then walk over to catch connecting to Downtown. Long walk so that is my exercise for now

[XianGe]

14 hours ago, The_King said:

Same over here.

 

You look that the chinatown CNY market. You know ppl have already lose their spending power. 

 

 

This few yr, many retail  like on weekends, like it empty and no one spending much, instead more and more ppl go to JB.

 

This is why quiet com area was born

 

My co and I agree most ppl the walking in type go jb is because of reduce spending power. Who on earth like to wait 2 to 5 hr at the custom.

 

 

Even this cny, many of my co side all cutting down on spending

 

 

Just walk around, you will notice the different

 

True... Sinkieland prices r more sexpensive... Cny goodies go city Square buy still way cheaper than usual roadshow at taka.. 

 

But then today surprisingly customs not crowded... 

Edited January 18, 2020 by XianGe

[socrates469bc]

21 hours ago, The_King said:

Same over here.

 

You look that the chinatown CNY market. You know ppl have already lose their spending power. 

 

 

This few yr, many retail  like on weekends, like it empty and no one spending much, instead more and more ppl go to JB.

 

This is why quiet com area was born

 

My co and I agree most ppl the walking in type go jb is because of reduce spending power. Who on earth like to wait 2 to 5 hr at the custom.

 

 

Even this cny, many of my co side all cutting down on spending

 

 

Just walk around, you will notice the different

 

7 hours ago, XianGe said:

 

True... Sinkieland prices r more sexpensive... Cny goodies go city Square buy still way cheaper than usual roadshow at taka.. 

 

But then today surprisingly customs not crowded... 

 

this yr is more quiet than last yr but stall rental more sexpensive than last, really dont know how they survive.

 

cow car water stall is average ard 25k, plus labor of 5 ard 15k and miscellaneous of ard 3k, fixed costs alone is total almost 45k.

 

and with traffic footfall being so thin due to e-com and poor spending sentiment, really dont know how they survive.

 

 

[The_King]

1 hour ago, socrates469bc said:

 

 

this yr is more quiet than last yr but stall rental more sexpensive than last, really dont know how they survive.

 

cow car water stall is average ard 25k, plus labor of 5 ard 15k and miscellaneous of ard 3k, fixed costs alone is total almost 45k.

 

and with traffic footfall being so thin due to e-com and poor spending sentiment, really dont know how they survive.

 

 

Hahaha, I also want to know. This yr cny is early. I go yesterday and there walk space. It you talk about 5yr or 7yr ago. There no walking space at all

 

 

Or maybe just trying not save face

[The_King]

8 hours ago, XianGe said:

 

True... Sinkieland prices r more sexpensive... Cny goodies go city Square buy still way cheaper than usual roadshow at taka.. 

 

But then today surprisingly customs not crowded... 

I think almost everything

[XianGe]

1 hour ago, The_King said:

I think almost everything

 

Some of jb imported items not cheap... Depends on country they got it from

[The_King]

2 minutes ago, XianGe said:

 

Some of jb imported items not cheap... Depends on country they got it from

Ya some more expensive but those that go there usually often know the price and what to get

[socrates469bc]

8 minutes ago, XianGe said:

 

Some of jb imported items not cheap... Depends on country they got it from

 

5 minutes ago, The_King said:

Ya some more expensive but those that go there usually often know the price and what to get

 

best is get the cny tidbits from artisan bakers in batam or jb.

 

at least no preservatives.

 

those in bangawan solo is preservatives gao gao.

 

i import batam kueh lapis as gifts for biz associates every cny via my shipping agent.

[The_King]

Nv think of going to artisan bakers at JB to buy cause we don't really buy cny tidbit.

 

 

Maybe next time I try

Edited January 19, 2020 by The_King