socrates469bc Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 vege english shld lose by at less 1m votes if dpp dont play dirty. this is at 1630 https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200109003364-260407?chdtv rally start at 1900 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socrates469bc Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 even more scary for vege english at nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_King Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 china win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socrates469bc Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, The_King said: china win end winner will be washington no matter kmt or dpp. taiwan depends totally on the americans for defense and technology, so ROC is tightly bound to the americans. if really fight, us f-15s from nipponland will bomb tsmc's 14 fabs to dust in the first minute of the fight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_King Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 no then my cpu chip no more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meng.huat Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 If rally turnout means anything. Our PM should be Mr Low now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socrates469bc Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 (edited) 9 hours ago, meng.huat said: If rally turnout means anything. Our PM should be Mr Low now. maybe. but more important is the enthusiasm of the crowd. in a presidential system election, it is a better gauge than polling since the executive president is voted in by popular voting and thus a successful rally will translate into a winner ard 80% of the time. while in a westminister parliamentary system of past-the-post, a successful rally might not translate into a win 80% of the time due to support dilution across the districts. in sgp's case, Ah Gong LKY had successfully social-engineered the sgp society into the belief that PAP can do no wrong, which is the envy of the Emperor Xi and CCP. Edited January 10, 2020 by socrates469bc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_King Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, socrates469bc said: maybe. but more important is the enthusiasm of the crowd. in a presidential system election, it is a better gauge than polling since the executive president is voted in by popular voting. while in a westminister parliamentary system of past-the-post, a successful rally might not translate into a win due to support dilution across the districts. in sgp's case, Ah Gong LKY had successfully social-engineered the sgp society into the belief that PAP can do no wrong, which is the envy of the Emperor Xi and CCP. Taiwan should master this 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XianGe Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 15 hours ago, socrates469bc said: vege english shld lose by at less 1m votes if dpp dont play dirty. this is at 1630 https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20200109003364-260407?chdtv rally start at 1900 During the rally already addressed him as president Korean fish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meng.huat Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 before HK riots, i think korean fish sure win... now HK riot stirring anti tiong... anti 1 country 2 system.... English Tsai got chance again... if u notis... these few days tiongland tone down on HK reports.... they don't want to flare the anti tiong feelings... The green camp tv station should stir more HK news to help English tsai.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socrates469bc Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 hour ago, meng.huat said: before HK riots, i think korean fish sure win... now HK riot stirring anti tiong... anti 1 country 2 system.... English Tsai got chance again... if u notis... these few days tiongland tone down on HK reports.... they don't want to flare the anti tiong feelings... The green camp tv station should stir more HK news to help English tsai.. the tiongs have no choice since hk reports r all negative to the tiongs after the hk local election, so it is getting harder to paint a nationalistic picture to the mainland audience. korean fish must thx Mazu that hk protests started in jun last yr, so the hk impact has now almost dissipated for the middle class voters. so no matter how the green camp stir hk news, it will be useless as rational heads now prevail over economic and governance issues. coupled with the fact that vege english and her dpp did nothing except corruption and cronyism during their 4yr mandate, along with policy missteps over the past 6mths, majority middle class voters and their once-solid rural voting base r now solidly against them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meng.huat Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 39 minutes ago, socrates469bc said: the tiongs have no choice since hk reports r all negative to the tiongs after the hk local election, so it is getting harder to paint a nationalistic picture to the mainland audience. korean fish must thx Mazu that hk protests started in jun last yr, so the hk impact has now almost dissipated for the middle class voters. so no matter how the green camp stir hk news, it will be useless as rational heads now prevail over economic and governance issues. coupled with the fact that vege english and her dpp did nothing except corruption and cronyism during their 4yr mandate, along with policy missteps over the past 6mths, majority middle class voters and their once-solid rural voting base r now solidly against them. i would say very very close fight... English 40 korea 40 Song 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socrates469bc Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 8 minutes ago, meng.huat said: i would say very very close fight... English 40 korea 40 Song 20 in a ceteris paribus scenario, a 4 right, 4 left and 2 center distribution is the commonly assumed electoral structure. however, with social changes, the structure has now shifted to a 3 right, 3 left and 4 center distribution in many democrarcies. in many cases, the 3 right and 3 left can be further break down into 2 hard right, 1 right, 2 hard left and 1 left. taiwan fall into this 2+1 right, 2+1 left and 4 center structure. now, with abt 3/5 of the center frustrated with the economy and part, maybe ard a quarter of the 2+1 leaning away from vege english due to disappointment, the result may not be as close as what many observers suggest and based on this unbiased modeling, korean fish will win 60% of the votes casted. however, 40% of taiwanese voters r too kumgong and fall easily for last-minute dpp falsehood theatrics most of the time. so i m waiting to see what sort of theatrics the dpp can come up with after the 2-bullets incident of 2004 and the 2016 tszyu incident and if the majority of the taiwanese r kumgong to fall for them again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaur4man Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 15 hours ago, socrates469bc said: end winner will be washington no matter kmt or dpp. taiwan depends totally on the americans for defense and technology, so ROC is tightly bound to the americans. if really fight, us f-15s from nipponland will bomb tsmc's 14 fabs to dust in the first minute of the fight. Maybe drone strike enough liao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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