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song bo, pappy serfs????? bolehsian serfs have 10-corner fight!!!!!!!!


socrates469bc

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20 hours ago, chamfer said:

Waiting for ringgit to hit 3.50

 

a too weak regional currencies in a short period r no good for pappy dollar.

 

this means pappyland interest rates r much higher than rest of the region.

 

a higher pappyland interest rate will theoretically keep imported inflation in check, but when regional currencies r so much weaker, this means imported raw materials for regional producers will sky-rocket as well, which will feed back into pappyland via higher prices, which will defeat the purpose of a strong pappy dollar to keep imported inflation in check.

 

and to keep a strong pappyland dollar, a higher interest rate must be maintained and this will feed-back into higher mortgage rates, which will increase the probability of default.

 

taking the bee kok-pappyland interest differentials,  pappland cash rate is at 25 basis point premium from fed rate mid-point.

 

when compared against regional currencies, such as the indon premium of ard 75 basis point, is not enough to stop rupiah from weakening as historically, indon bonds demand a 2-4% premium over bee kok fed rate.

 

and with a bee kok fed looking at 5% minimum by mid next yr, pappyland mortgage rate is going to go from the current 4.5% average to at least 7% end next yr.

 

so mas is stuck somewhere in between, keep imported inflation in check or allow property defaults.

 

bear in mind, pappy serfs, housing makes up at least 15% of pappyland gdp, which limpeh believes is undercounting.

 

wahahahahahahahahahaha

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