Singapore economy forecast to contract 6% in 2020: MAS survey of economists

[The_King]

SINGAPORE — Singapore’s economy is expected to shrink by 6 per cent in 2020 due mainly to the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a survey by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) released on Monday (7 September).

The latest MAS quarterly survey of professional forecasters reflected the views of 26 economists and analysts. Singapore’s full-year gross domestic product (GDP) forecast is lower than the 5.8 per cent contraction projected in the previous MAS survey in June.

The respondents cited a further deterioration in the COVID-19 situation due to further waves of outbreaks or delays in vaccine development as the main downside risks to Singapore’s growth outlook. The next biggest potential risks cited by them are an escalation in US-China trade tensions and a slower-than-expected global economic recovery.

Singapore’s GDP is expected to rebound next year and grow by 5.5 per cent, according to the survey.

In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to contract by 7.6 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter. The economy contracted by 13.2 per cent in the second quarter compared with the same period last year, larger than the respondents’ forecast of a 11.8 per cent decline in the previous survey.

Among the outlook of the key sectors for this year, manufacturing is expected to grow 2.3 per cent while finance & insurance is forecast to expand 4.9 per cent. On the other hand, three other sectors are projected to decline, with construction, wholesale & trade, and accommodation & food services falling by 23 per cent, 6.4 per cent and 29.1 per cent respectively.

Private consumption is seen falling 11.8 per cent while non-oil domestic exports are forecast to rise 4.5 percent in 2020.

All the respondents expect corporate profitability to decline this year. Two-thirds of the respondents believe private residential property prices will decline, while half of those surveyed project that Singapore dollar corporate bond spreads will remain stable.

As for the labour market, the respondents expect the unemployment rate to be 3.5 per cent at year-end.

The respondents forecast a -0.4 per cent for headline inflation while core inflation is expected to be -0.3 per cent this year.

The survey was sent out on 12 August and doesn’t represent the views or forecasts of the MAS.

[Camper]

Even if this year is -20%, no one will find it shocking.

 

But next year, believe me, will be a rude awakening for most of us 😊

[socrates469bc]

20 minutes ago, Camper said:

Even if this year is -20%, no one will find it shocking.

 

But next year, believe me, will be a rude awakening for most of us 😊

 

alrdy said in 2004 that loong loong's casino economy is a stupid idea liao.

 

now i just make fun of those who bot genting sgp last yr.

 

heng, i sold mine off when i see the trade war will be a long affair and tiongland will be severely affected for at few yrs.

 

wahahahahhahaha

[Camper]

21 minutes ago, socrates469bc said:

 

alrdy said in 2004 that loong loong's casino economy is a stupid idea liao.

 

now i just make fun of those who bot genting sgp last yr.

 

heng, i sold mine off when i see the trade war will be a long affair and tiongland will be severely affected for at few yrs.

 

wahahahahhahaha

Actually now most worrying are those people on debt restructuring and deferment. Not just consumers but for businesses too. Still see people say will be V shape recovery. Im looking at L shape with a long bottom 😞

[socrates469bc]

19 minutes ago, Camper said:

Actually now most worrying are those people on debt restructuring and deferment. Not just consumers but for businesses too. Still see people say will be V shape recovery. Im looking at L shape with a long bottom 😞

 

i look at the dollar value of trade defaults reported in newspaper alrdy scared liao.

 

nb, reported thus far at least sgd3bln liao, how much more r unreported and need to be restructured, we dont know.

 

since we know economy is a circular system,  the impact bound to be beyond what we see.

 

at first i expected a v-shaped and was tempted to buy ocbc but feel something not rite and as more scientific studies emerged, i know sure siao liao, better wait until end of nov.

[The_King]

28 minutes ago, Camper said:

Actually now most worrying are those people on debt restructuring and deferment. Not just consumers but for businesses too. Still see people say will be V shape recovery. Im looking at L shape with a long bottom 😞

heng i no debt

[Camper]

5 minutes ago, The_King said:

heng i no debt

Just make sure your bank account within 75k. Never know if bank will jipaboomz. Black swan are getting more and more common.

 

Swiss franc, brexit, oil negative value. More to come..

[The_King]

6 minutes ago, Camper said:

Just make sure your bank account within 75k. Never know if bank will jipaboomz. Black swan are getting more and more common.

 

Swiss franc, brexit, oil negative value. More to come..

i already did my own bank run when interest rate fall to noob

[Camper]

52 minutes ago, The_King said:

i already did my own bank run when interest rate fall to noob

Me dont know how to make money work for me. Prefer to keep as cash.

 

Only leisure gambling here and there.

[The_King]

19 minutes ago, Camper said:

Me dont know how to make money work for me. Prefer to keep as cash.

 

Only leisure gambling here and there.

same also. prefer to keep cash and gold