💸 A gambler lost S$1.2 million after betting on Spain to beat Cape Verde at the World Cup, with odds set at 92%.
Unlucky.
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The staggering loss involved a bettor on the prediction market **Polymarket** who wagered approximately **US990,068 (roughly S1.27 million)** on Spain to defeat Cape Verde in their opening match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
### The Context of the Wager
* **The Strategy:** The bet was placed at 92% implied probability, a "low-risk, low-return" strategy designed to secure a relatively small profit—estimated at about US85,000 (S108,900)—by betting on the heavy tournament favorites.
* **The Outcome:** Spain, the reigning European champions, failed to break down the defense of tournament debutants Cape Verde. The match ended in a **0-0 draw**, resulting in the total loss of the wager.
* **Key Factors:** The underdog performance was anchored by 40-year-old Cape Verde goalkeeper **Vozinha**, who made critical saves throughout the match, frustrating the Spanish attack. Spain attempted 27 shots but could not find the net, a performance that drew significant criticism and comparisons to their previous World Cup exits.
### Betting Market Impact
* **"Contrarian" Gains:** While the primary bettor lost significantly, others benefited from the upset. A user known as "fishalive" reportedly wagered US400,000 against a Spain win and successfully cashed out approximately US4.7 million.
* **Market Risk:** The incident highlights the volatility of prediction markets during major sporting events. Experts note that wagering volumes for this World Cup are significantly higher than previous iterations, with platforms like Polymarket becoming central to high-stakes, event-based betting.
**Note:** Polymarket is currently banned in Singapore for providing unlicensed gambling services. Engaging with such platforms may be a violation of the
**Gambling Control Act**, which can result in significan
t fines or imprisonment.