LONDON – A new analysis by The Economist suggests the global population could peak as early as the mid-21st century, contradicting United Nations projections that anticipate growth continuing into the 2080s. The report highlights a startling demographic shift: falling fertility rates are no longer just a "rich country" problem but a global phenomenon spreading rapidly through developing economies. A Universal Downturn According to the report, the "replacement rate"—the 2.1 children per woman required to keep a population stable—is now a threshold that two-thirds of the global population lives below. While low birth rates in East Asian nations like Japan, South Korea, and China are well-documented, the trend has quietly expanded. "India... is now sub-replacement rate," noting that the country’s fertility rate dropped from 3.5 at the turn of the century to below 2.1 today. Similar declines are evident across most of South America, leaving only Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa as the remaining regions with high fertility rates. Challenging the UN Consensus The United Nations currently projects the global population will peak at around 10 billion in the 2080s. However, The Economist argues these models rely on optimistic assumptions that fertility rates in plummeting regions will "immediately start recovering" and that rates in countries like the U.S. will stop falling. Testing these assumptions, the report modeled what would happen if current downward trends continued: * If trends continue for 5 years: The population peak moves forward to 2070. * If trends continue for 15 years: The peak arrives in 2060. * If trends continue for 25 years: The world could see population decline beginning around 2050. "We are going to see over the next few decades us approach this peak population position globally, which is really remarkable because the global population hasn't fallen since the Black Death," the report notes. The "Teen Pregnancy" Factor and Lifestyle Convergence The investigation also debunks common myths about the drivers of this decline. In the United States, for instance, the drop is not solely driven by career-focused women delaying motherhood. In fact, more than half of the U.S. fertility decline since 1990 is attributed to a sharp reduction in teen pregnancies (mothers under 19). "Rich and highly educated women in the US have slightly more children than some of the lower income groups," creating a convergence of fertility rates across income levels. The report concludes that this synchronization suggests a "convergence of lifestyle desire" globally, making the UN’s prediction of a natural "rebound" in fertility rates appear increasingly "naive". Source: The Economist - "Why the world’s population is heading for collapse" (Nov 19, 2025)     

Wanted to try HKM but the owner closed shop   https://imgur.com/a/px0t2hx

That day i saw a hot atb cleaner at Novena. Wanted to sniff her butthole

Happy Birthday my fellow Sagi

@coffeenut