SINGAPORE – Oil smashed through US$100 a barrel as more major Middle East producers curbed production, the Strait of Hormuz remained all but closed and the United States threatened to deepen a conflict that has upended energy markets.
Brent surged as much as 20 per cent to US$111.04 a barrel as trading in Asia opened on March 9, while West Texas Intermediate jumped as much as 22 per cent.
The United Arab Emirates and Kuwait have started reducing output as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut and storage rapidly fills up. Iraq began shutting production last week.
US President Donald Trump dismissed the war-related spike in oil prices as a “small price to pay” for removing the threat of Iran’s nuclear programme.
“Short-term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!” he wrote on March 8 on his Truth Social platform.
The war in the Middle East is showing no signs of abating after
s making a temporary, tactical return
“The psychological level of US$100 oil may just be a short-term price target on its way to higher levels as the conflict drags on, oil production is throttled back as oil storage fills up because tankers are unable to load,” said Lipow Oil Associates president Andy Lipow.
More than a dozen countries have been sucked into the fray and the conflict has stoked fears of an inflation crisis. US retail gasoline prices have jumped to the highest level since August 2024, posing a significant challenge to Mr Trump and his party at the US midterm elections later in 2026.
Still, Mr Trump is pushing ahead with the war, and in a social media post early on March 7, said the United States will consider striking areas and groups of people in Iran that were not previously considered targets. The remarks came after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian vowed not to back down.
More major energy infrastructure was threatened over the weekend, with Saudi Arabia intercepting and destroying drones heading to the one million barrel a day Shaybah oil field. Last week, the kingdom was forced to halt operations at the Ras Tanura refinery, the country’s biggest, and is seeking to divert barrels to its Red Sea ports for export after the Hormuz closure.
Rising energy prices, including for products such as gasoil, are rippling through the market. Import-dependent Asia, which leans heavily on the Middle East, is feeling the most immediate pain.
In Japan – which takes more than 90 per cent of its crude from the region – refiners are asking for the option of drawing on national oil reserves. China’s government has told the country’s top refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline, and South Korea is reviewing whether to introduce an oil price cap for the first time in 30 years.
For analysts at ING Groep, the base case is now four weeks of disruption – two of full upheaval and two weeks of 50 per cent, said Mr Warren Patterson, the bank’s head of commodities strategy in Singapore.
“This scenario doesn’t necessarily mean that we see a full end to the conflict in this time period,” he said. “But if US and Israeli strikes degrade Iran’s ability to attack vessels and enforce a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, we could see flows starting to normalise.”
The bank’s most dramatic scenario is a three-month, full disruption to oil and liquefied natural gas flows. This would likely see oil prices spiking to records through the second quarter, the bank’s analysts wrote in a note. BLOOMBERG