really cham liao!!!!! SIA lost at big on fuel hedging!!!!!!

[socrates469bc]

uob kh estimate a sgd2.5bln mtm loss!!!!!

 

how can SIA called it fuel hedging when u long the market until mar 2025????

 

if u buy more than 1 yr's requirement forward, that is called position taking, not hedging liao!!!!!

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-singapore-air/singapore-airlines-to-report-fourth-quarter-loss-on-fuel-hedges-idUSKBN22K01I

 

 

[Homelander]

Yeah now hovering around $4.50 after rights issue

[socrates469bc]

4 minutes ago, Homelander said:

Yeah now hovering around $4.50 after rights issue

 

but most likely more downside to come since aviation and tourism will take at least 2yrs to recover and after that, who knows what this sector will look like.

 

i think temasek will try to support at this ex-rite price level for at least a mth.

[Homelander]

15 minutes ago, socrates469bc said:

 

but most likely more downside to come since aviation and tourism will take at least 2yrs to recover and after that, who knows what this sector will look like.

 

i think temasek will try to support at this ex-rite price level for at least a mth.

 

Yes, price drop sibei fast...wanna recover takes forever or never! 

[socrates469bc]

12 minutes ago, Homelander said:

 

Yes, price drop sibei fast...wanna recover takes forever or never! 

 

this time rd, its a different game from 1997 or 2008 which is just a pure economic/financial crisis.

 

this rd is a economic/financial/health crisis all rolled into 1, so it will take more than 2yrs for demand to recover.

 

so if anyone tells me that this will be a 1yr v-shaped recovery, i will ask him to pledge his kkj.

[Homelander]

23 minutes ago, socrates469bc said:

 

this time rd, its a different game from 1997 or 2008 which is just a pure economic/financial crisis.

 

this rd is a economic/financial/health crisis all rolled into 1, so it will take more than 2yrs for demand to recover.

 

so if anyone tells me that this will be a 1yr v-shaped recovery, i will ask him to pledge his kkj.

are you leonard? My fren leonard said the same thing. 90% similar to u. 

[aaur4man]

Hi Leonard

[The_King]

@socrates469bc

 

What is so surprising.

 

 

Flooding called ponding

Shutdown called  CB

Breakdown called delay

Collision called come into contact

 

Edited May 8, 2020 by The_King

[The_King]

32 minutes ago, socrates469bc said:

 

this time rd, its a different game from 1997 or 2008 which is just a pure economic/financial crisis.

 

this rd is a economic/financial/health crisis all rolled into 1, so it will take more than 2yrs for demand to recover.

 

so if anyone tells me that this will be a 1yr v-shaped recovery, i will ask him to pledge his kkj.

 Those who use wonderful choice of word will say it a V shaped recovery

[socrates469bc]

44 minutes ago, Homelander said:

are you leonard? My fren leonard said the same thing. 90% similar to u. 

 

mkt sure will have some siao langs like me who have this outlook, but usually very few at the beginning of a major turning point.

 

[socrates469bc]

41 minutes ago, The_King said:

 Those who use wonderful choice of word will say it a V shaped recovery

 

a v-shaped recovery is when an economy undergo a temporary shock to the system without impacting its fundamentals.

 

what we have now is a permanent change in consumer behavior for the next 5 yrs and a excess abundance of credit undermining the economic fundamentals in the form of asset inflation.

 

obviously those economists on tv failed their economics 100.

[Standing Birdy]

23 minutes ago, socrates469bc said:

 

a v-shaped recovery is when an economy undergo a temporary shock to the system without impacting its fundamentals.

 

what we have now is a permanent change in consumer behavior for the next 5 yrs and a excess abundance of credit undermining the economic fundamentals in the form of asset inflation.

 

obviously those economists on tv failed their economics 100.

I think many kumgongs like me thought covid would be a short shock like sars/mers. Turns out it's not. And there's more pain to come until there is a vaccine or at least a cure.

As for the credit problem, many people have it at the back of their minds (especially those from Austrian school). But the prevailing opinion seems to be that govs will continue to kick the can down the road. I don't know where the road ends, though. I think the can will continue getting kicked until it falls off a cliff. So for the time being it will be stagflation

Heng I nv lose money

[Satki]

Must be trying to average down. Until suddenly realised they are in 2025.

 

Temasick style

[The_King]

34 minutes ago, socrates469bc said:

 

a v-shaped recovery is when an economy undergo a temporary shock to the system without impacting its fundamentals.

 

what we have now is a permanent change in consumer behavior for the next 5 yrs and a excess abundance of credit undermining the economic fundamentals in the form of asset inflation.

 

obviously those economists on tv failed their economics 100.

 

Heng, I got no debt.  I know nuts about economy and as a saver and someone who spend on needs instead of wants

 

 

I want to see how this turn out. Busy busy busy low balling all day long on those despo seller trying to sell their used goods for money

[The_King]

11 minutes ago, Standing Birdy said:

I think many kumgongs like me thought covid would be a short shock like sars/mers. Turns out it's not. And there's more pain to come until there is a vaccine or at least a cure.

As for the credit problem, many people have it at the back of their minds (especially those from Austrian school). But the prevailing opinion seems to be that govs will continue to kick the can down the road. I don't know where the road ends, though. I think the can will continue getting kicked until it falls off a cliff. So for the time being it will be stagflation

Heng I nv lose money

Stagflation remind me of this song

 

 

Economic winter 
Whatcha want, watcha want
Whatcha gonna do
When Economic winter come for you
Tell me
Whatcha wanna do, whatcha gonna dooo
Yeaheah

Economic winter , Economic winter 
Whatcha gonna do, whatcha gonna do
When they come for you

Economic winter , Economic winter 
Whatcha gonna do, whatcha gonna do
When they come for you

When you were  asset inflation
And you had  monetary excesses 
You go to stagflation/stagnation
And learn the golden rule
So why are you
Acting like a kondratiev wave
If you get  monetary excesses 
You must get stagflation/stagnation

 

 

 

[Homelander]

1 hour ago, socrates469bc said:

 

mkt sure will have some siao langs like me who have this outlook, but usually very few at the beginning of a major turning point.

 

 

there will not be any dividend for next 2 years for SQ, dio bo?

[aaur4man]

51 minutes ago, Satki said:

Must be trying to average down. Until suddenly realised they are in 2025.

 

Temasick style

 

Smells like hin Leong style

[Satki]

3 hours ago, aaur4man said:

 

Smells like hin Leong style

 

 

Yes these are the standard "not my money" style

[socrates469bc]

5 hours ago, Standing Birdy said:

I think many kumgongs like me thought covid would be a short shock like sars/mers. Turns out it's not. And there's more pain to come until there is a vaccine or at least a cure.

As for the credit problem, many people have it at the back of their minds (especially those from Austrian school). But the prevailing opinion seems to be that govs will continue to kick the can down the road. I don't know where the road ends, though. I think the can will continue getting kicked until it falls off a cliff. So for the time being it will be stagflation

Heng I nv lose money

 

at first, i expected a v-shape recovery as well.

 

but once i saw how infectious the wuhan is and the accompanying science, i change my view by end jan.

 

most govts r using fiscal stimulus without thinking of the fiscal sustainability or generational transfer.

 

unless an economy is like the usd/rmb/yen, the ghosts of fiscal stimulus will come back to haunt an economy via inflation as we seen in many african/latin american economies and russia or via stunted growth as seen in many sea/african economies.

[socrates469bc]

5 hours ago, Satki said:

Must be trying to average down. Until suddenly realised they are in 2025.

 

Temasick style

 

4 hours ago, aaur4man said:

 

Smells like hin Leong style

 

looking at the way sia was entering the trades, those jokers were averaging downwards and imo, totally unprofessional.

 

professionals like me will be using options and otcs to cover the trading positions.

 

only kumgongs will use vanilla futures to do hedging now.

 

wahahahahhahahha

[socrates469bc]

5 hours ago, Homelander said:

 

there will not be any dividend for next 2 years for SQ, dio bo?

 

no dividends for at least 5 yrs.

 

even ocbc dividends will most likely halved to 26cents or below for this yr and next.

 

so at sgd9/share, the dy is not very attractive.

[The_King]

1 hour ago, socrates469bc said:

 

 

looking at the way sia was entering the trades, those jokers were averaging downwards and imo, totally unprofessional.

 

professionals like me will be using options and otcs to cover the trading positions.

 

only kumgongs will use vanilla futures to do hedging now.

 

wahahahahhahahha

professional?

 

[Homelander]

1 hour ago, socrates469bc said:

 

no dividends for at least 5 yrs.

 

even ocbc dividends will most likely halved to 26cents or below for this yr and next.

 

so at sgd9/share, the dy is not very attractive.

wow i confirm u r Leonard! Hey buddy!

wahahaha

[aaur4man]

Leonard ah Leonard

[The_King]

57 minutes ago, Homelander said:

wow i confirm u r Leonard! Hey buddy!

wahahaha

wrong, this is him