MAS: "Singapore will be in recession this year!"

[Cynical Ape]

 

SINGAPORE: Singapore will enter into a recession this year because of the blow from the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in job losses and lower wages, with “significant uncertainty” over how long and intense the downturn will be, the central bank warned on Tuesday (Apr 28).

 

Depending on how the pandemic evolves and the efficacy of policy responses around the world, Singapore’s economic growth could even dip below the forecast range of -4 to -1 per cent to record its worst-ever contraction, said the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in its latest half-yearly macroeconomic review. As a comparison, Singapore’s worst recession thus far was during the Asian financial crisis in 1998, when the economy contracted 2.2 per cent. Full-year economic growth came in at 0.1 per cent during the global financial crisis in 2009 and shrank 1.1 per cent during the dotcom bust in 2001.

 

“The Singapore economy will enter into a recession this year,” said MAS in a 132-page report. “At this juncture there remains significant uncertainty over the severity of the downturn, as well as the eventual recovery. The materialisation of downside risks, that largely depend on the course taken by the pandemic and efficacy of policy responses around the world, could tip the growth outcome in Singapore below the forecast range,” it added. The grim prognosis comes as Singapore reels from the COVID-19 outbreak.

 

Singapore is going through a "circuit breaker" period to stem the spread of COVID-19. The period was originally scheduled to end on May 4 but has since been extended until Jun 1. 

 

All non-essential workplaces have been closed and residents told not to leave their homes except to buy food and groceries or to exercise alone in the neighbourhood. These measures have taken its toll on the economy,which contracted 2.2 per cent year-on-year in the first three months, marking its first negative quarter since the global financial crisis in 2009. MAS said the Singapore economy is likely to “contract more sharply” in the second quarter, given the severity of the outbreak among its major trading partners, as well as the circuit breaker measures that kicked in early this month.

 

Beyond that, the outlook is “fraught with uncertainty”. This is because Singapore’s prospects are hinged on external circumstances, such as the transmission and incidence of the virus, as well as the pace at which other countries recover from their own health and economic challenges, the central bank said.

Yet, there is a “poor understanding” of how the COVID-19 situation could evolve globally, it noted. This implies that the depth and duration of Singapore’s downturn, as well as the strength of an eventual recovery, remain unknown.

 

MAS added that it is unclear if the disease will taper off globally in the second half of 2020 and the risk of subsequent waves of infections remain high until a vaccine is found.

 

“Given the likely protracted nature of this pandemic, containment measures can only be wound down in a gradual manner. In fact, intermittent rounds of re-containment measures may be required, thus hampering a decisive rebound in economic activity,” it said.

 

Singapore faces “significant” downside risks, namely the possibility of stricter measures to stem the spread of the virus, weak demand from external partners and weak consumer spending. First, any deployment of stricter containment measures around the world would further constrain economic activities and result in a worse-than-expected growth for the second quarter. Any fallout in the global financial markets could also create “negative feedback loops” with knock-on effects on the economy. Second, if the pandemic takes longer to be brought under control and the resumption of global economic activity is delayed, persistent softness in the world’s final demand could affect the timing of the recovery. Third, a complete containment may be harder to achieve given the “more contagious but less detectable nature” of COVID-19, compared to the SARS outbreak in 2003. This persistent uncertainty could cause consumers and firms to delay spending, leading to a “more gradual” and “less decisive” global recovery. MAS said a materialisation of these three risks in “any combination” would drag Singapore’s economic growth below its current projected range.

 

Source: CNA

Edited April 28, 2020 by Cynical Ape

[meng.huat]

10 minutes ago, Cynical Ape said:

Singapore will enter into a recession this year because of the blow from the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in job losses and lower wages, with “significant uncertainty” over how long and intense the downturn will be, the central bank warned on Tuesday (Apr 28).

 

 

[socrates469bc]

if sgp no recession this yr,

 

i chop my kkj, battered him, fry him and treat atbs jiak.

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by socrates469bc

[The_King]

Even a dkgk know there will be recession.

 

Don't try so hard to win my dkgk title. If you want dkgk title, I give you

[Chestnut]

Quite a while back jobs very hard to find liao,and some pay is jin peanuts. Now with this pandemic shit hits harder

[socrates469bc]

2 minutes ago, Chestnut said:

Quite a while back jobs very hard to find liao,and some pay is jin peanuts. Now with this pandemic shit hits harder

 

best is to join my church.

 

guaranteed 5 day work week forever unless force de majure.

 

[The_King]

1 hour ago, socrates469bc said:

 

best is to join my church.

 

guaranteed 5 day work week forever unless force de majure.

 

he is a noob la. later become like this

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by The_King

[meng.huat]

14 hours ago, Chestnut said:

Quite a while back jobs very hard to find liao,and some pay is jin peanuts. Now with this pandemic shit hits harder

 

i think the world has changed.

its like a reset button was pressed.

 

we will first need to solve the pandemic issues, either a vaccine, treatment or herd immunity (with a lot of sacrifices).

then we can go out to gather and do business again.

 

 

casino, amusement parks and entertainment might take more damage

 

 

[Chestnut]

9 minutes ago, meng.huat said:

 

i think the world has changed.

its like a reset button was pressed.

 

we will first need to solve the pandemic issues, either a vaccine, treatment or herd immunity (with a lot of sacrifices).

then we can go out to gather and do business again.

 

 

casino, amusement parks and entertainment might take more damage

 

 

 

Not sure when will this ever end 😔

[meng.huat]

1 minute ago, Chestnut said:

 

Not sure when will this ever end 😔

 

it will end.

the virus will run out of people to infect.

[socrates469bc]

16 minutes ago, meng.huat said:

 

i think the world has changed.

its like a reset button was pressed.

 

we will first need to solve the pandemic issues, either a vaccine, treatment or herd immunity (with a lot of sacrifices).

then we can go out to gather and do business again.

 

 

casino, amusement parks and entertainment might take more damage

 

 

 

i quite like the peacefulness and fresher morning air.

 

mother earth needs a short break from the pollution of the past 250 yrs or so.

 

[socrates469bc]

12 minutes ago, Chestnut said:

 

Not sure when will this ever end 😔

 

10 minutes ago, meng.huat said:

 

it will end.

the virus will run out of people to infect.

 

take at least 1 yr using fast tracked vaccine approval.

 

but then again, this virus is so sakti that it can mutate into many strains.

 

so vaccine might not even be able to inoculate.

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study

[Standing Birdy]

12 minutes ago, socrates469bc said:

 

 

take at least 1 yr using fast tracked vaccine approval.

 

but then again, this virus is so sakti that it can mutate into many strains.

 

so vaccine might not even be able to inoculate.

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080771/coronavirus-mutations-affect-deadliness-strains-chinese-study

From a bigger perspective, no vaccine no big deal

People will die, so be it. Natural selection

Virus > humans. Until it runs out of hosts