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lip lai guess today how many?


kyloren

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14 hours ago, meng.huat said:

feb-16-singapore-covid19-cases.png

 

For reference.

 

 

@socrates469bc can use some technical analysis to predict?

 

can be done using ad hoc modelling since i dont have a los alamos supercomputer in my place.

 

most important number to note is the basic reproduction number or R0, ie the ability of 1 person to infect how many others in a unit of time.

 

from available statistics, R0 is ard 2.5 and the underlying period is ard 14 days means that the number of infections will roughly triple every 14 days if there was no containment.

 

apparently, the initial containment efforts was insufficient as the number of cases roughly tripled from the 24 in the first 14 days to the 75 cases in slightly less than 14 days, even exceeding the 72 cases predicted by the model.

 

if the heightened containment doesnt work, we will be looking at 200 cases by early march and most likely the wuhan virus will rage in china until early may with the onset of summer.

 

this ah moh maths article even more sakti, they estimate china will have at least 500k  b4 the virus died off in early summer.

 

i have to agree with their maths.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/14/disease-modelers-see-future-of-covid-19/

 

 

 

 

Edited by socrates469bc
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