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On 8/24/2020 at 9:53 PM, Standing Birdy said:

63% through book. I think this will end up on every "top books to read in 2020" list. It is an improvement over the other books in this genre because of its simple steps to reframe to have a growth mindset. It also covers more ground in enough depth for you to take action.

This will be my answer to family and colleagues who they tell me "I can't abc because I am xx or because I am not yy."

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adding this to my reading list.

thanks!

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now looking to see if i can get this book from kinokuniya.

 

the recently concluded us election has thoroughly convinced me that the masses r of borderline mental retardation and democracy is only marginally better than communism.

 

the only true thing in this world is cash!!!!!!!

 

wahahahhahaha

 

How to Win an Election: An Ancient Guide for Modern Politicians: Cicero,  Quintus Tullius, Freeman, Philip: 9780691154084: Amazon.com: Books

 

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Just finished this very good book by the guy who developed the Keras python library. The examples are easy to follow if you know python.

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About 50% through this. Our world is made up of multiple intertwining systems. This book identifies some common traps in thinking and decision-making and teaches how to look at the bigger picture. 

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Good book on how to be an effective knowledge worker. 

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Reading this to eventually turn hobby into business. There is a good overview of many different models. I can understand parts of the code but I don't understand most of the math behind the models. But I think there is no need to fully understand how they work, just need to know if they work well for my purposes.

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Moi learning how to be a true ninja now! :wahaha:

 

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Jokes aside, this would be a great read for folks intrigued by these espionage figures that lived during medieval Japan. It was based on author Antony Cummins many years of careful research (peer reviewed by historians).

 

Edited by Cynical Ape
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finished reading this book. 

A simple short introduction to breathwork which author includes 50 practices from various techniques. Quick and useful to use as there is no need to read through the whole book. Just flip to the practice which you are interested in and start doing it. Practices are grouped into four sections : Physical self,psychological self,spiritual self and breathwork interventions.

 

Love DK publishing for keeping information short and interesting and never fails to capture my curiosity since young.

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On 12/5/2020 at 11:22 AM, Standing Birdy said:

 

Reading this to eventually turn hobby into business. There is a good overview of many different models. I can understand parts of the code but I don't understand most of the math behind the models. But I think there is no need to fully understand how they work, just need to know if they work well for my purposes.

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nb, the maths doesnt work in this current market liao.

 

foreign gamblers dont know when can come but genting sgp can jump 30% last month.

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8 hours ago, socrates469bc said:

 

nb, the maths doesnt work in this current market liao.

 

foreign gamblers dont know when can come but genting sgp can jump 30% last month.

My hypothesis is it still works if you can figure out what factors to consider important, what to consider unimportant and what to disregard completely. That also depends on the state of the market. I think using one model won't work so the trick is to use multiple models and assign them right weights for the right situations. 

But that's still a long way off with a lot of work before I can start testing. 

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1 hour ago, Standing Birdy said:

My hypothesis is it still works if you can figure out what factors to consider important, what to consider unimportant and what to disregard completely. That also depends on the state of the market. I think using one model won't work so the trick is to use multiple models and assign them right weights for the right situations. 

But that's still a long way off with a lot of work before I can start testing. 

 

in a way, u r rite.

 

varying the exogeneous variables usually do the tricks but in the current market, it will not as the random error, e, will exhibit unit root while autocorrelation test using ordinary least squares will show weak to no autocorrelation in a 2 yr dataset.

 

the reason why the models exhibit such results is becos e now has a much larger effect on the models due to information over-reaction.

 

or what Keynes will term as animal spirit while Greenspan will call it irrational exuberance.

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4 hours ago, socrates469bc said:

 

in a way, u r rite.

 

varying the exogeneous variables usually do the tricks but in the current market, it will not as the random error, e, will exhibit unit root while autocorrelation test using ordinary least squares will show weak to no autocorrelation in a 2 yr dataset.

 

the reason why the models exhibit such results is becos e now has a much larger effect on the models due to information over-reaction.

 

or what Keynes will term as animal spirit while Greenspan will call it irrational exuberance.

I think Keynes, Greenspan and you are thinking that all or most people think like you, as professionals or sophisticated market participants. The work of behavioural economists tell us that people are illogical and prone to biases and fallacies in our decision-making. If that includes "smart money", how smart do you expect "dumb money" to be?

 

If you talk to aunty and uncles about buying stocks and property, and question their thinking behind their decisions, you will probably roll your eyes until you are dizzy or laugh until your teeth drop. People do things to the best of their knowledge and ability and that can be non-existent and even wrong. We think it is irrational and illogical but it doesn't matter what we think because they act that way and that has an effect on the market. 

 

I learnt recently, after reading about systems-thinking, that we often do not think in systems and do not consider what we don't know. The result is operating based on a flawed or incomplete mental model. If you really think about it, there are no side effects or over-reaction. They are effects and reactions that we do not think about, do not want or do not agree with. 

 

When our model fails to approximate the real world and the error factor keeps growing, perhaps it is time to consider updating the model or building new models? Of course that is easier said than done but the first step is to consider if our existing model still applies. 

 

The other thing is to not just consider factors and correlations but the 2nd, 3rd and nth order of interactions while keeping in mind that our current tools may be inadequate for the task. OLS, curve fitting and all regressions have their limitations. Even with machine learning, the network can get stuck at a local minima and make you think it is predictive when it is not. 

 

 There is this quote from Sufism that I have been thinking about these days. “You think because you understand 'one' you must also understand 'two', because one and one make two. But you must also understand 'and'.” I think 'and' (the interaction between factors) is where the magic happens and if you can figure it out then you become a market wizard. 

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10 minutes ago, Standing Birdy said:

I think Keynes, Greenspan and you are thinking that all or most people think like you, as professionals or sophisticated market participants. The work of behavioural economists tell us that people are illogical and prone to biases and fallacies in our decision-making. If that includes "smart money", how smart do you expect "dumb money" to be?

 

 

congrats, my prodding have finally allow u to figure out ur answer in red whether a model is accurate and usable. 

 

dont be stuck on thinking solely the exogeneous factors. rather, focus on the e instead to determine the model.

 

think of the e as composed of biases and fallacies. these biases and fallacies r not predictive using regression modeling so therefore, u have to add in a dummy variable to bring out or minimize the randomness or unit root.

 

however, this will introduce biaseness into the data set as to what counts as 1 and 0.

 

therefore, the issue here is not whether the mathematical models r wrong.

 

but rather, the effect of e has largely subvert the variables.

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Latest from Chomsky and his colleague Prof. Marv Waterstone at the University of Arizona...ordered my copy and I can't wait to read it!

 

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