Chiwit Thai

[Yamato]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transportation/Bangkok-hopes-extended-railway-will-ease-traffic-chaos?utm_campaign=RN%20Subscriber%20newsletter&utm_medium=daily%20newsletter&utm_source=NAR%20Newsletter&utm_content=article%20link&del_type=1&pub_date=20200316120000&seq_num=7&si=%%user_id%%

 

Bangkok hopes extended railway will ease traffic chaos

Subway system set to double with $9.5bn investment by 2023
YOHEI MURAMATSU, Nikkei staff writer
March 15, 2020 14:00 JST 

 

Bangkok opened its first urban railway in 1999, a relatively early mover in Southeast Asia, but frequent political upheavals and economic fluctuations delayed expansion. (Photo by Akira Kodaka)

 

BANGKOK -- A city known for traffic gridlock and confusing roads, Bangkok has been trying to improve traffic and the quality of life for its residents by rapidly expanding its rail system.

 

The Blue Line, Bangkok's first circle line, started operation at the beginning of this month connecting the downtown area with western districts after the completionof a 12-kilometer extensionin the west of the capital.

 

At Tha Phra Station, the massive X-shaped structure serving the western portion of the Blue Line, service started without a hitch at one of the lower platforms on a recent visit. It took about an hour to travel the entire loop before arriving at one of the station's upper platforms.

 

Bangkok's railway is set to double to about 300 km in 2023 from the end of last year, making it nearly the same size as Tokyo's subway and one of the largest in Asia excluding China.

 

The total development cost is expected to exceed 300 billion baht ($9.54 billion) by 2023.

 

"The development of urban railways is one of the keys to achieving sustainable, high-quality economic growth. Thailand needs to prioritize that," Keiichiro Yuasa, senior representative at Japan International Cooperation Agency Thailand Office told the Nikkei Asian Review. 

 

It is difficult to attract highly skilled staff if they know that their quality of life would be compromised by traffic jams and air pollution, he said.

 

 

Bangkok is bisected by the Chao Phraya River, which runs south into the Gulf of Thailand. On one side of the river is the city's massive business district that spans the city center to neighborhoods further east. On the western side of the river are residential areas.

 

Traveling between the eastern and western halves of the city used to be a hassle, but the Blue Line will make it much more convenient now.

 

The elevated Green Line, which has been in service for roughly two decades, provides a link to the northern part of Bangkok. A 3-km extension to Kasetsart University opened in December.

 

Kasetsart is one of the country's largest universities with a student population of roughly 60,000. Before the extension, buses were the only public transportation available for commuting to the school. The line has been a hit with students, and an additional extension has been planned for next year.

 

The Dark Red Line, beginning from Bang Sue Grand Station in the north, is due to launch next year, extending over 26 km. When the entire line is complete, it will connect to Don Mueang and Suvarnabhumi international airports.

 

"The government wants to gear up and modernize transport systems for all people. We have to fill all major areas with electric trains," Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha said in September. "Traffic problems can be relieved if Bangkok residents, particularly motorists, have more choices to travel, and a rail network should be one of them."

 

Bangkok opened its first urban railway, called Skytrains or BTS, in 1999, a relatively early mover in Southeast Asia, but frequent political upheavals and economic fluctuations delayed expansion.

 

New Delhi, which opened its first subway line in 2002, has seen improvements far faster than Bangkok, with the total route now exceeding 300km. In Thailand, the military government, which took power after the 2014 coup, accelerated the development of urban railways, and expansion finally gained momentum.

 

 

The rail construction has sparked a flurry of development along the routes, leading to the formation of new city centers in the greater Bangkok area.

 

Around Tao Poon Station near Bang Sue, new condominiums have sprouted. One building nearing completion has 740 units and was built by Thailand's Sena Development jointly with

Japan's Hankyu Hanshin Properties. A commercial development near the station, built by Thai conglomerate TCC Group, opened for business last November.

 

"This area used to be a working-class neighborhood, but the streetscape has changed dramatically over the past few years," said a manager at a nearby restaurant.

 

Another secondary urban center is taking shape in the southeast, thanks to Charoen Pokphand Group. The nation's largest conglomerate poured about 30 billion baht into a mixed-use development that opened near Punnawithi Station.

 

In addition to residential and office space, the complex also features True Digital Park, the biggest startup campus in Southeast Asia designed to house 25,000 workers.

 

Sparking this transformation was the Thai government's yearslong mission to reduce traffic congestion. Thailand is Southeast Asia's car manufacturing center, where Japanese automakers dominate. Vehicle ownership has climbed along with the economy.

 

At the same time, Bangkok has been the scene of disorganized urban sprawl that has left municipal functions concentrated in the downtown area. Roadway construction has failed to keep pace with economic growth. Streets only cover 7% of the city, or less than half that in Tokyo.

 

As a result, Bangkok, together with Mexico City, was named one of the world's two most congested cities in a 2017 ranking by Dutch digital mapping company TomTom.

 

Thailand's capital improved to 11th place in 2019, but air pollution still causes public schools to close some days. The government now looks to develop secondary urban centers to resolve the problem.

 

However, some economic risk factors have emerged that could undercut infrastructure spending. Because of the trade war, the economy grew only 2.4% last year, the slowest pace since 2014. With the new coronavirus hammering the tourism and manufacturing industries, economic growth may dip below 2% this year.

[Yamato]

So was on Saturday I had a wonderful breakfast by the pool with the Mrs

 

Resort lobby

 

 

 

Pool by the breakfast place and lobby

 

Breakfast open air

 

 

Half boiled egg

 

Thai Kway Chap

 

Pork boiled rice

[Yamato]

These days it's difficult to get dining companions to join this lonely soul. So, lonely

 

[Yamato]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia-Insight/Thailand-s-economic-death-by-a-thousand-cuts-sows-desperation?utm_campaign=RN%20Subscriber%20newsletter&utm_medium=daily%20newsletter&utm_source=NAR%20Newsletter&utm_content=article%20link&del_type=1&pub_date=20200317190000&seq_num=2&si=%%user_id%%

Thailand's economic 'death by a thousand cuts' sows desperation

Suicides rise as debts, drought and coronavirus hit the country hard

 

MARWAAN MACAN-MARKAR, Asia regional correspondent
March 17, 2020 04:06 JST 

 

NAKHON PATHOM, Thailand -- Four Buddhist monks were chanting prayers -- the funeral rites for Thee Pieanmag, a 32-year-old building contractor who had died by suicide in his home.

 

A sprinkling of Thee's family and friends, all dressed in black, had gathered at Wat Maipinkleaw temple in Nakhon Pathom, west of Bangkok. Beside the coffin was a sepia-toned photo of Thee in a silver frame.

 

Weerapong Pieanmag was at a loss to understand his younger brother's suicide. "He showed no signs of trouble about his building business, even if it was becoming difficult to get building materials on credit," Weerapong said.

 

Thee's death was reported in Thai Rath, the country's largest Thai-language daily. The newspaper ran a story in early March, with grim details of his final hours and a headline stating that his suicide was because of "a huge debt."

 

His premature death was far from an isolated case. Stories of suicides related to financial hardship have become all too familiar in Thailand over the last year -- a dark measure of the costs as Southeast Asia's second-largest economy stutters.

 

In mid-February, a used-car dealer led his family of four in a mass suicide in Phitsanoulok, a northern province. A note left on his phone revealed he had business debts of over 10 million baht ($313,000).

 

Just after Thee's death, a 56-year-old businessman in the plastics trade from Samut Sakhon, south of Bangkok, died in another suicide attributed to money problems.

 

The kingdom has the highest suicide rate in Southeast Asia, at 14.4 per 100,000 people, according to the World Health Organization. Experts see little hope of improvement, at least when it comes to economy-related cases, as the country's middle and working classes will continue to face a storm of problems -- rising debts, weak consumer spending, factory closures, falling commodity prices and a harsh drought, to name a few.

 

And now, there is the impact of the new coronavirus spreading across the globe.

 

Massage shop workers wait for customers in a tourist area of Bangkok on March 6. The coronavirus pandemic is just one headwind hitting Thailand's small businesses.    © Reuters

 

Already, in 2019, Thailand's economy grew just 2.4%, one of the slowest rates in the past five years, according to the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), which plans the country's economic strategy. This year's growth is expected to be even worse, at 1.5%, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking predicts.

Insiders at Bangkok's financial institutions say the actual result could end up being only 0.5%, the lowest in a decade.

 

"What we are seeing now is slow attrition, a hollowing out of the economy for the small people," said Supavud Saicheau, a leading economist and adviser to Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group, a Bangkok-based business consultancy. "It is economic death by a thousand cuts."

 

Two recent reports by the World Bank lay bare the roots of Thailand's economic malaise.

 

They trace the country's woeful numbers to the five years under the previous military junta -- a bitter pill for the generals who run the pro-military government elected last March. In 2014, the year of the coup, growth slumped to 1% due to the political turmoil.

 

 

From 2015 to 2018, the World Bank says the poverty rate in Thailand increased from 7.21% to 9.85%. The number of people living in poverty surged from 4.85 million to more than 6.7 million, out of a population of 69.04 million.

 

These troubling trends, the bank noted, did not stem from severe local or international financial crises, which had at least partly explained previous increases in poverty in 1998, 2000 and 2008.

 

Nationwide perceptions of well-being are low across Thailand, compared with its regional peers. "Only 39% of Thais in 2018 felt their standard of living was getting better," the World Bank said in early March. It was "the lowest when compared to other Southeast Asian countries surveyed during a similar period."

 

 

Poverty is widespread across all 77 Thai provinces, which "signals a reversal in trends from the past," the World Bank report argues. In the 2007-2013 period, "wages, farm incomes and remittances contributed to poverty reduction, but in the period [from] 2015-2017 they became sources of rising poverty."

 

The dire picture on the ground shreds the rosy image the government painted in 2017. Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, the junta's economic czar and the current regime's key economic adviser, said that "nobody will be poor in Thailand by 2018."

 

Billions of baht worth of stimulus packages, subsidies and direct cash as relief measures -- euphemistically referred to as "helicopter money" -- have been rolled out. The junta's flagship welfare program, unveiled in 2017, initially disbursed 40 billion baht to 11 million poor people. That number increased to 14 million in the second year, as the regime geared up for the March 2019 general elections.

 

But stories of families trapped at the bottom of the economic ladder reveal the limits of the junta's and pro-military government's aid.

 

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, front right, launched billions of baht worth of stimulus measures ahead of the general election in 2019, but the economy slowed.    © AP

 

The need for more "helicopter money" could swell in Chonburi, a province southeast of Bangkok, where factories are shutting down due to plummeting exports. Thousands in the province have been pushed out of their jobs as a consequence of a strong Thai baht and a shifting global market for Thai manufactured goods. Now, there are long lines of former factory workers at the local offices of the labor department.

 

Many are turning to loan sharks to help make ends meet, adding to bulging household debts. Last year, the average debt load stood at 552,500 baht, up from 377,100 baht in 2009, according to the Bank of Thailand, the central bank. Total household debt is now equal to nearly 80% of gross domestic product, the second-highest ratio in Asia after South Korea.

 

"Our debt is over 2 million baht now, and we are struggling to pay back the 15% monthly interest to the loan shark," said Phatthiraphon Nonsiri. She lost her job in December, after the Japanese-owned auto parts factory where she worked shut down. The closure also affected her husband and her parents, all of whom were employed on the factory floor.

 

The sudden loss of income, the 29-year-old Phatthiraphon said, may condemn them to "live in the dark." They have failed to pay three months of electricity bills, and they fear their power supply will be cut. "We are stuck," she said, shaking her head.

 

Empty chairs are seen on a Phuket beach -- usually full of tourists -- on March 11.   © Reuters

 

A similar gloom is descending on Bangkok, including the ubiquitous fashion malls many small and midsize enterprises rely on.

 

One mall in a northern Bangkok district used to be popular with office workers and students looking for bargains without brand names. Now the upper floors resemble a graveyard of empty stores. Nearly one-third are closed.

 

"Earlier, when business was good, we earned 200,000 baht a month, but last month sales were down to 75,000 baht," lamented a vendor who sold colorful Hawaiian shirts. "It is hard to stay open, because customers have declined, yet our costs are the same, like monthly rent of 31,400 baht. ... We may close soon."

 

The plight of Thai SMEs, a driving force for the economy, has not been lost on economists. "SMEs have higher risk, and as a result have more difficulty to get funding from the formal banking sector than large corporates," said Somprawin Manprasert, chief economist at the research division of Bank of Ayudhya.

 

"The shock from the coronavirus is draining demand, and I am worried, really worried about our economy."

 

But even before the coronavirus hit the tourism sector, Somprawin's researchers had raised the alarm about farm incomes drying up from the severe drought.

 

The Yom River is reduced to little more than puddles in this part of Phichit Province, north of Bangkok. If the drought persists much longer, farmers face significant losses.   © AP

 

The dry spell began in mid-2019 and shows no signs of abating. If it continues through July, losses from the rice crop are estimated at 37.8 billion baht and 3.3 billion baht for cassava, according to a March 2020 study by the commercial bank. Rubber and sugar farmers are also hurting.

 

The drought could not have come at a worse time, the NESDC said last month. A parched rural heartland will not be able to reprise its old role as a shock absorber for a weak economy. In the past, rural areas offered work to families who had lost jobs in factories or small businesses and returned to their villages to harvest the fields.

 

The discontent among Thailand's economically dispossessed is growing. And the parliamentary opposition has seized the moment to accuse the pro-military regime of forsaking the majority in favor of its powerful financial allies, the Sino-Thai oligarchs, whose fortunes have soared after the 2014 putsch.

 

Mingkwan Saengsuwan, a former commerce minister, drew first blood, arguing that since the coup the total wealth of the richest 1% of Thais was "worth more than the total wealth of the 99% of Thais combined." He was driving home a point made during a no-confidence debate in the legislature in late February: that by 2017, Thailand had topped the list of countries with the worst wealth inequality, up from 11th place just two years earlier.

 

Financial analysts have taken note of the glaring economic divide and the pampered oligarchs benefiting from sweetheart deals. The junta turned to the oligarchs to help revive the economy after the coup, enticing them into partnerships by dangling carrots -- tax concessions and protection of their monopolies and duopolies. There is growing chatter within some quarters about Thailand becoming "a country owned by a few for a few," as one veteran foreign analyst in Bangkok put it.

 

Consequently, political risk is rising, he noted. "Yet, we don't know which form it will take, but if history is a guide, Thais don't do things gradually -- they just blow up."

 

[Standing Birdy]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/coronavirus-covid19-outbreak-thailand-limit-impact-12553516

COVID-19 outbreak could last 2 years in Thailand but there is still time to limit impact: Expert

BANGKOK: Half of Thailand’s population - about 33 million people - could be infected by COVID-19 over the next two years in the worst case scenario described by deputy director of the Disease Control Department Dr Thanarak Phaliphat.

“We’ve forecast three scenarios of widespread transmission. If Thais coordinate well, infections will be limited over the next two years. If we can’t control it, about half of the population could be infected in this period,” Dr Thanarak said in an interview with CNA.

 

Thailand is battling one of the gravest crises in its medical history. Its government, health officials and millions of residents feel mounting concern about the new coronavirus disease that has killed at least 7,000 people and infected more than 180,000 across the world.

Despite its recent emergence, the rapid outbreak of COVID-19 in Thailand has instilled fear in the public, disrupted the economy and put tens of millions of lives at risk.

Since January, the country has reported 212 cases of COVID-19. The number may seem relatively low – compared to the likes of China and Italy where the numbers of cases are in the tens of thousands – but a significant increase in infected patients this week has rung an alarm bell.

“If we let it become widespread, the number of patients with serious symptoms could be high,” Dr Thanarak said.

 

READ: Thailand reports 35 new coronavirus infections, bringing total to 212

Explore: Real-time interactive map of all the confirmed cases reported around the world

On Monday (Mar 16), the Thai government maintained the local transmission of COVID-19 is still limited but admitted preparations were being made for the final stage of the pandemic – Stage 3. It refers to the moment when the local transmission of coronavirus disease is no longer limited and becomes widespread.

According to Dr Thanarak, it may not take long before Thailand enters the final phase.

When that happens, there are three possible scenarios forecast by his department. They differ according to the virus’ Basic Reproductive Number or R0 – an epidemiologic metric used to measure the ability of a host to transmit a virus to others.

Scenario 1 happens when the disease control is carried out well, meaning one COVID-19 host can spread the virus to 1.6 others on average.

Scenario 2 occurs when the outbreak has been slowed down to a moderate pace, meaning one COVID-19 host can spread the virus to 1.8 others on average.

Scenario 3 takes place when the outbreak is severe, meaning one COVID-19 host can spread the virus to 2.2 others on average.

“The R0 isn’t determined by the virus alone but also by other factors such as population density. If the disease spreads in Bangkok and a small province such as Mae Hong Son, and both provinces let its transmission continue naturally, the R0 in Bangkok will be higher than that in Mae Hong Son,” Dr Thanarak told CNA.

“Residents of Mae Hong Son may come into contact with fewer than 100 people per day but for Bangkokians, they’re already with 50 people as soon as they get on the skytrain.”

Besides population density, Dr Thanarak added, there are several other factors that can determine how widespread the COVID-19 transmission can become. They include the capacity of Thailand’s disease control system, and preventive measures such as social distancing, working from home and separation of work shifts.

“If we stay at home, our risk of infection will be low,” he said.

READ: Schools in Thailand to close for two weeks to curb COVID-19 spread: PM Prayut

READ: COVID-19 Pandemic could make another 25 million jobless: UN

"WE’LL ENTER A VERY DIFFICULT SITUATION"

Thailand reported its first case of COVID-19 in January but had since recorded relatively low numbers of new infections.

The situation has begun to change since mid-March, when health officials reported a few large clusters of infections in Bangkok. One of them is an entertainment venue in downtown Thonglor, where a group of partygoers were infected through an imported case. Others include boxing stadiums where thousands of people were reported to have congregated earlier this month.

However, it was not until Mar 15 that Thailand recorded a big jump in numbers of cases for the first time – from 82 to 114. An increase by at least 30 cases per day has since been reported in the country as more people from the clusters test positive for the virus. Data from the health ministry showed 40 of the total 212 patients in Thailand joined the gatherings at the boxing stadiums.

“Imagine that people who felt ill hadn’t attended those events, that the hosts who first spread the virus to others hadn’t attended those boxing matches, our country would still be fine,” Dr Thanarak said.

“In the respiratory disease control, the most important thing is to ensure every Thai realises that once they experience a fever, coughing, a sore throat or other symptoms in the upper respiratory tract, they must not spread the virus to others but stay home and wear a face mask. This is the most important thing that every Thai must know.”

READ: Thailand releases detailed COVID-19 control measures for travellers

READ: Thai immigration officers at Bangkok airport diagnosed with COVID-19

Widespread transmission of COVID-19 could soon hit Thailand if two or three more large clusters emerge, Dr Thanarak told CNA.

“We’ll enter a very difficult situation.”

And when that happens, only patients in critical condition are likely to be admitted. In Stage 3, those with mild symptoms will be advised to isolate themselves at home, where they can take paracetamol to reduce fever, Dr Thanarak said.

“There have been reports that other fever-reducing medicines should be avoided and paracetamol is the best. Patients can take it and drink a lot of water. If their symptoms become severe, they should see a doctor as soon as possible,” he added.

During the isolation, Dr Thanarak said necessary measures must be put in place to prevent the virus from infecting other family members while patients must be able to observe their symptoms and know when they should seek medical assistance.

“If a patient has a test at a hospital and needs to be admitted, the hospital must accommodate the patient. It can’t just do the test alone,” he added.

READ: Thailand prepares for widespread COVID-19 transmission

"COVID-19 WILL NEVER LEAVE THIS WORLD"

Large clusters of COVID-19 infections in Thailand are an indication of super spreaders, who according to Dr Thanarak are hosts who transmit the virus to a certain number of people that greatly exceeds the average.

In its efforts to slow down the outbreak, the Thai government has ordered all educational institutions nationwide to close from Mar 18 to Mar 31. Entertainment outlets in and around the capital will also be closed during the period, while sports venues such as boxing stadiums are not allowed to operate until the situation improves.

“People will continue to be infected for a while before this pandemic disease turns endemic,” Dr Thanarak said, adding 80 per cent of COVID-19 patients recover by themselves without hospitalisation.

“This disease will never leave this world. It’ll become a disease that always stays with humans until we have a vaccine. Even when the vaccine becomes available, I think people will keep getting it, just like we do with other diseases.”

For Thailand to get through this medical crisis, Dr Thanarak said it takes “the whole society” and not just the government or the people alone. Everyone needs to “chip in”, he added, in order to create and drive a safe environment where public health is imperative.

Thais should know what to do when they are ill, and social measures must be introduced to support people who make ends meet and cannot afford to stop working, according to Dr Thanarak. A change in lifestyle to avoid crowded places is also a necessary step in controlling the disease, he said.

“We do this for ourselves. Nobody is safe unless everybody is safe.”

[Yamato]

Needed another break this week so today came to Pattaya to look at the sea for relaxing.

 

Always choose this hotel

 

 

 

 

Big room overlooking the sea

 

 

View

 

[Yamato]

Went to Preecha seafood at Sattahip beach for lunch

 

 

 

 

Kale with salted fish

 

Grouper deep fried

 

Putting the sweet and sour and spicy sauce

 

Sweet and sour and spicy fish

 

Mantis prawn

 

Sweet sweet meat

 

Cray fish stir fry with chili sauce

 

Curry crab

[Yamato]

Hotel surroundings

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Yamato]

Breakfast today

 

 

 

 

 

[Yamato]

The Chinese Virus had really dealt a blow to the Thai tourism sector. I will be showing a few videos I took around Pattaya, see it for yourself.

 

This video taken at about 11.30am of Pattaya 2nd Road probably the busiest road in Pattaya lined with shops and massages and restaurants, it is so quiet notice many shops closed

 

Notice also the pickup taxis plying the road almost all empty

 

 

 

The famous beach road many shops have very few customers very few tourists walking around

 

 

 

Here's the beach so few visitors

 

 

 

[Yamato]

Here's more

 

Pattaya Walking Street

 

 

Jomtien Beach Road

 

Jomtien Beach

 

Looks bad isn't it? I've never ever seem Pattaya like a ghost town

[socrates469bc]

On 3/18/2020 at 11:28 AM, Yamato said:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Asia-Insight/Thailand-s-economic-death-by-a-thousand-cuts-sows-desperation?utm_campaign=RN%20Subscriber%20newsletter&utm_medium=daily%20newsletter&utm_source=NAR%20Newsletter&utm_content=article%20link&del_type=1&pub_date=20200317190000&seq_num=2&si=%%user_id%%

Thailand's economic 'death by a thousand cuts' sows desperation

Suicides rise as debts, drought and coronavirus hit the country hard

 

MARWAAN MACAN-MARKAR, Asia regional correspondent
March 17, 2020 04:06 JST 

 

NAKHON PATHOM, Thailand -- Four Buddhist monks were chanting prayers -- the funeral rites for Thee Pieanmag, a 32-year-old building contractor who had died by suicide in his home.

 

A sprinkling of Thee's family and friends, all dressed in black, had gathered at Wat Maipinkleaw temple in Nakhon Pathom, west of Bangkok. Beside the coffin was a sepia-toned photo of Thee in a silver frame.

 

Weerapong Pieanmag was at a loss to understand his younger brother's suicide. "He showed no signs of trouble about his building business, even if it was becoming difficult to get building materials on credit," Weerapong said.

 

Thee's death was reported in Thai Rath, the country's largest Thai-language daily. The newspaper ran a story in early March, with grim details of his final hours and a headline stating that his suicide was because of "a huge debt."

 

His premature death was far from an isolated case. Stories of suicides related to financial hardship have become all too familiar in Thailand over the last year -- a dark measure of the costs as Southeast Asia's second-largest economy stutters.

 

In mid-February, a used-car dealer led his family of four in a mass suicide in Phitsanoulok, a northern province. A note left on his phone revealed he had business debts of over 10 million baht ($313,000).

 

Just after Thee's death, a 56-year-old businessman in the plastics trade from Samut Sakhon, south of Bangkok, died in another suicide attributed to money problems.

 

The kingdom has the highest suicide rate in Southeast Asia, at 14.4 per 100,000 people, according to the World Health Organization. Experts see little hope of improvement, at least when it comes to economy-related cases, as the country's middle and working classes will continue to face a storm of problems -- rising debts, weak consumer spending, factory closures, falling commodity prices and a harsh drought, to name a few.

 

And now, there is the impact of the new coronavirus spreading across the globe.

 

Massage shop workers wait for customers in a tourist area of Bangkok on March 6. The coronavirus pandemic is just one headwind hitting Thailand's small businesses.    © Reuters

 

Already, in 2019, Thailand's economy grew just 2.4%, one of the slowest rates in the past five years, according to the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), which plans the country's economic strategy. This year's growth is expected to be even worse, at 1.5%, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking predicts.

Insiders at Bangkok's financial institutions say the actual result could end up being only 0.5%, the lowest in a decade.

 

"What we are seeing now is slow attrition, a hollowing out of the economy for the small people," said Supavud Saicheau, a leading economist and adviser to Kiatnakin Phatra Financial Group, a Bangkok-based business consultancy. "It is economic death by a thousand cuts."

 

Two recent reports by the World Bank lay bare the roots of Thailand's economic malaise.

 

They trace the country's woeful numbers to the five years under the previous military junta -- a bitter pill for the generals who run the pro-military government elected last March. In 2014, the year of the coup, growth slumped to 1% due to the political turmoil.

 

 

From 2015 to 2018, the World Bank says the poverty rate in Thailand increased from 7.21% to 9.85%. The number of people living in poverty surged from 4.85 million to more than 6.7 million, out of a population of 69.04 million.

 

These troubling trends, the bank noted, did not stem from severe local or international financial crises, which had at least partly explained previous increases in poverty in 1998, 2000 and 2008.

 

Nationwide perceptions of well-being are low across Thailand, compared with its regional peers. "Only 39% of Thais in 2018 felt their standard of living was getting better," the World Bank said in early March. It was "the lowest when compared to other Southeast Asian countries surveyed during a similar period."

 

 

Poverty is widespread across all 77 Thai provinces, which "signals a reversal in trends from the past," the World Bank report argues. In the 2007-2013 period, "wages, farm incomes and remittances contributed to poverty reduction, but in the period [from] 2015-2017 they became sources of rising poverty."

 

The dire picture on the ground shreds the rosy image the government painted in 2017. Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, the junta's economic czar and the current regime's key economic adviser, said that "nobody will be poor in Thailand by 2018."

 

Billions of baht worth of stimulus packages, subsidies and direct cash as relief measures -- euphemistically referred to as "helicopter money" -- have been rolled out. The junta's flagship welfare program, unveiled in 2017, initially disbursed 40 billion baht to 11 million poor people. That number increased to 14 million in the second year, as the regime geared up for the March 2019 general elections.

 

But stories of families trapped at the bottom of the economic ladder reveal the limits of the junta's and pro-military government's aid.

 

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, front right, launched billions of baht worth of stimulus measures ahead of the general election in 2019, but the economy slowed.    © AP

 

The need for more "helicopter money" could swell in Chonburi, a province southeast of Bangkok, where factories are shutting down due to plummeting exports. Thousands in the province have been pushed out of their jobs as a consequence of a strong Thai baht and a shifting global market for Thai manufactured goods. Now, there are long lines of former factory workers at the local offices of the labor department.

 

Many are turning to loan sharks to help make ends meet, adding to bulging household debts. Last year, the average debt load stood at 552,500 baht, up from 377,100 baht in 2009, according to the Bank of Thailand, the central bank. Total household debt is now equal to nearly 80% of gross domestic product, the second-highest ratio in Asia after South Korea.

 

"Our debt is over 2 million baht now, and we are struggling to pay back the 15% monthly interest to the loan shark," said Phatthiraphon Nonsiri. She lost her job in December, after the Japanese-owned auto parts factory where she worked shut down. The closure also affected her husband and her parents, all of whom were employed on the factory floor.

 

The sudden loss of income, the 29-year-old Phatthiraphon said, may condemn them to "live in the dark." They have failed to pay three months of electricity bills, and they fear their power supply will be cut. "We are stuck," she said, shaking her head.

 

Empty chairs are seen on a Phuket beach -- usually full of tourists -- on March 11.   © Reuters

 

A similar gloom is descending on Bangkok, including the ubiquitous fashion malls many small and midsize enterprises rely on.

 

One mall in a northern Bangkok district used to be popular with office workers and students looking for bargains without brand names. Now the upper floors resemble a graveyard of empty stores. Nearly one-third are closed.

 

"Earlier, when business was good, we earned 200,000 baht a month, but last month sales were down to 75,000 baht," lamented a vendor who sold colorful Hawaiian shirts. "It is hard to stay open, because customers have declined, yet our costs are the same, like monthly rent of 31,400 baht. ... We may close soon."

 

The plight of Thai SMEs, a driving force for the economy, has not been lost on economists. "SMEs have higher risk, and as a result have more difficulty to get funding from the formal banking sector than large corporates," said Somprawin Manprasert, chief economist at the research division of Bank of Ayudhya.

 

"The shock from the coronavirus is draining demand, and I am worried, really worried about our economy."

 

But even before the coronavirus hit the tourism sector, Somprawin's researchers had raised the alarm about farm incomes drying up from the severe drought.

 

The Yom River is reduced to little more than puddles in this part of Phichit Province, north of Bangkok. If the drought persists much longer, farmers face significant losses.   © AP

 

The dry spell began in mid-2019 and shows no signs of abating. If it continues through July, losses from the rice crop are estimated at 37.8 billion baht and 3.3 billion baht for cassava, according to a March 2020 study by the commercial bank. Rubber and sugar farmers are also hurting.

 

The drought could not have come at a worse time, the NESDC said last month. A parched rural heartland will not be able to reprise its old role as a shock absorber for a weak economy. In the past, rural areas offered work to families who had lost jobs in factories or small businesses and returned to their villages to harvest the fields.

 

The discontent among Thailand's economically dispossessed is growing. And the parliamentary opposition has seized the moment to accuse the pro-military regime of forsaking the majority in favor of its powerful financial allies, the Sino-Thai oligarchs, whose fortunes have soared after the 2014 putsch.

 

Mingkwan Saengsuwan, a former commerce minister, drew first blood, arguing that since the coup the total wealth of the richest 1% of Thais was "worth more than the total wealth of the 99% of Thais combined." He was driving home a point made during a no-confidence debate in the legislature in late February: that by 2017, Thailand had topped the list of countries with the worst wealth inequality, up from 11th place just two years earlier.

 

Financial analysts have taken note of the glaring economic divide and the pampered oligarchs benefiting from sweetheart deals. The junta turned to the oligarchs to help revive the economy after the coup, enticing them into partnerships by dangling carrots -- tax concessions and protection of their monopolies and duopolies. There is growing chatter within some quarters about Thailand becoming "a country owned by a few for a few," as one veteran foreign analyst in Bangkok put it.

 

Consequently, political risk is rising, he noted. "Yet, we don't know which form it will take, but if history is a guide, Thais don't do things gradually -- they just blow up."

 

 

On 3/19/2020 at 10:12 AM, Standing Birdy said:

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/coronavirus-covid19-outbreak-thailand-limit-impact-12553516

COVID-19 outbreak could last 2 years in Thailand but there is still time to limit impact: Expert

BANGKOK: Half of Thailand’s population - about 33 million people - could be infected by COVID-19 over the next two years in the worst case scenario described by deputy director of the Disease Control Department Dr Thanarak Phaliphat.

“We’ve forecast three scenarios of widespread transmission. If Thais coordinate well, infections will be limited over the next two years. If we can’t control it, about half of the population could be infected in this period,” Dr Thanarak said in an interview with CNA.

 

Thailand is battling one of the gravest crises in its medical history. Its government, health officials and millions of residents feel mounting concern about the new coronavirus disease that has killed at least 7,000 people and infected more than 180,000 across the world.

Despite its recent emergence, the rapid outbreak of COVID-19 in Thailand has instilled fear in the public, disrupted the economy and put tens of millions of lives at risk.

Since January, the country has reported 212 cases of COVID-19. The number may seem relatively low – compared to the likes of China and Italy where the numbers of cases are in the tens of thousands – but a significant increase in infected patients this week has rung an alarm bell.

“If we let it become widespread, the number of patients with serious symptoms could be high,” Dr Thanarak said.

 

READ: Thailand reports 35 new coronavirus infections, bringing total to 212

Explore: Real-time interactive map of all the confirmed cases reported around the world

On Monday (Mar 16), the Thai government maintained the local transmission of COVID-19 is still limited but admitted preparations were being made for the final stage of the pandemic – Stage 3. It refers to the moment when the local transmission of coronavirus disease is no longer limited and becomes widespread.

According to Dr Thanarak, it may not take long before Thailand enters the final phase.

When that happens, there are three possible scenarios forecast by his department. They differ according to the virus’ Basic Reproductive Number or R0 – an epidemiologic metric used to measure the ability of a host to transmit a virus to others.

Scenario 1 happens when the disease control is carried out well, meaning one COVID-19 host can spread the virus to 1.6 others on average.

Scenario 2 occurs when the outbreak has been slowed down to a moderate pace, meaning one COVID-19 host can spread the virus to 1.8 others on average.

Scenario 3 takes place when the outbreak is severe, meaning one COVID-19 host can spread the virus to 2.2 others on average.

“The R0 isn’t determined by the virus alone but also by other factors such as population density. If the disease spreads in Bangkok and a small province such as Mae Hong Son, and both provinces let its transmission continue naturally, the R0 in Bangkok will be higher than that in Mae Hong Son,” Dr Thanarak told CNA.

“Residents of Mae Hong Son may come into contact with fewer than 100 people per day but for Bangkokians, they’re already with 50 people as soon as they get on the skytrain.”

Besides population density, Dr Thanarak added, there are several other factors that can determine how widespread the COVID-19 transmission can become. They include the capacity of Thailand’s disease control system, and preventive measures such as social distancing, working from home and separation of work shifts.

“If we stay at home, our risk of infection will be low,” he said.

READ: Schools in Thailand to close for two weeks to curb COVID-19 spread: PM Prayut

READ: COVID-19 Pandemic could make another 25 million jobless: UN

"WE’LL ENTER A VERY DIFFICULT SITUATION"

Thailand reported its first case of COVID-19 in January but had since recorded relatively low numbers of new infections.

The situation has begun to change since mid-March, when health officials reported a few large clusters of infections in Bangkok. One of them is an entertainment venue in downtown Thonglor, where a group of partygoers were infected through an imported case. Others include boxing stadiums where thousands of people were reported to have congregated earlier this month.

However, it was not until Mar 15 that Thailand recorded a big jump in numbers of cases for the first time – from 82 to 114. An increase by at least 30 cases per day has since been reported in the country as more people from the clusters test positive for the virus. Data from the health ministry showed 40 of the total 212 patients in Thailand joined the gatherings at the boxing stadiums.

“Imagine that people who felt ill hadn’t attended those events, that the hosts who first spread the virus to others hadn’t attended those boxing matches, our country would still be fine,” Dr Thanarak said.

“In the respiratory disease control, the most important thing is to ensure every Thai realises that once they experience a fever, coughing, a sore throat or other symptoms in the upper respiratory tract, they must not spread the virus to others but stay home and wear a face mask. This is the most important thing that every Thai must know.”

READ: Thailand releases detailed COVID-19 control measures for travellers

READ: Thai immigration officers at Bangkok airport diagnosed with COVID-19

Widespread transmission of COVID-19 could soon hit Thailand if two or three more large clusters emerge, Dr Thanarak told CNA.

“We’ll enter a very difficult situation.”

And when that happens, only patients in critical condition are likely to be admitted. In Stage 3, those with mild symptoms will be advised to isolate themselves at home, where they can take paracetamol to reduce fever, Dr Thanarak said.

“There have been reports that other fever-reducing medicines should be avoided and paracetamol is the best. Patients can take it and drink a lot of water. If their symptoms become severe, they should see a doctor as soon as possible,” he added.

During the isolation, Dr Thanarak said necessary measures must be put in place to prevent the virus from infecting other family members while patients must be able to observe their symptoms and know when they should seek medical assistance.

“If a patient has a test at a hospital and needs to be admitted, the hospital must accommodate the patient. It can’t just do the test alone,” he added.

READ: Thailand prepares for widespread COVID-19 transmission

"COVID-19 WILL NEVER LEAVE THIS WORLD"

Large clusters of COVID-19 infections in Thailand are an indication of super spreaders, who according to Dr Thanarak are hosts who transmit the virus to a certain number of people that greatly exceeds the average.

In its efforts to slow down the outbreak, the Thai government has ordered all educational institutions nationwide to close from Mar 18 to Mar 31. Entertainment outlets in and around the capital will also be closed during the period, while sports venues such as boxing stadiums are not allowed to operate until the situation improves.

“People will continue to be infected for a while before this pandemic disease turns endemic,” Dr Thanarak said, adding 80 per cent of COVID-19 patients recover by themselves without hospitalisation.

“This disease will never leave this world. It’ll become a disease that always stays with humans until we have a vaccine. Even when the vaccine becomes available, I think people will keep getting it, just like we do with other diseases.”

For Thailand to get through this medical crisis, Dr Thanarak said it takes “the whole society” and not just the government or the people alone. Everyone needs to “chip in”, he added, in order to create and drive a safe environment where public health is imperative.

Thais should know what to do when they are ill, and social measures must be introduced to support people who make ends meet and cannot afford to stop working, according to Dr Thanarak. A change in lifestyle to avoid crowded places is also a necessary step in controlling the disease, he said.

“We do this for ourselves. Nobody is safe unless everybody is safe.”

 

crisis means opportunities in danger.

 

and this will be a good 2 yrs ahead for me.

 

wahahahahhaha

[Yamato]

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1883570/bangkok-malls-to-close-from-sunday

Bangkok malls to close from Sunday
Expanded shutdown to last until April 12, with exceptions for supermarkets, pharmacies and take-out restaurants

published : 21 Mar 2020 at 15:46

 

Shoppers throng a Makro outlet in Bangkok on Saturday afternoon as the rush to stock up intensifies ahead of an expanded shutdown starting on Sunday. (Photo by Wichan Charoenkiatpakul)

 

City Hall has ordered Bangkok shopping malls to close from Sunday until April 12 as it steps up the battle against the spread of the coronavirus.

 

Most stores in malls will be shuttered but exceptions will be made for supermarkets, pharmacies, food take-out and delivery and other essential services, Bangkok Governor Aswin Kwanmuang said on Saturday.

 

The governor also ordered the closure of other venues considered high-risk areas because they attract large crowds of people. They include weekend markets and an expanded list of sports and entertainment venues, in addition to those ordered to close earlier.

 

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) made its dramatic move as the Public Health Ministry reported 89 new cases of Covid-19 on Saturday, the largest daily jump to date, bringing the nationwide total to 411.

 

“For malls, only the areas that sell food and goods that are used in daily life, will be open,” Pol Gen Aswin said in a Facebook Live broadcast.

 

The governor asked the public not to panic and hoard goods.

 

“Please don’t be alarmed, I guarantee that you will be able to buy food and goods sufficiently,” he said.

 

However, many people flocked to supermarkets to stock up on goods for at least the next two weeks. Many places were more crowded than usual with shoppers on Saturday afternoon. 

 

Rumours about a blanket closure of malls started to spread before the BMA chief made his official announcement, which appeared to have caught the central government off-guard. It was not the first time during the current virus crisis that mixed messages emerging within hours of each other confused and upset the public.

 

The confusion started when the BMA public-relations team sent a press release to a reporters’ chat group. Some recipients posted the news online as soon as they got it. Government spokeswoman Narumon Pinyosinwat said the report was false, and the BMA withdrew the release.

 

Ms Narumon said closures of shopping malls and other venues were still being considered by various agencies, such as the Interior Ministry and provincial governors.

 

However, the Bangkok governor then went ahead with a formal briefing, using most of the content of the original news release, but replacing the word “close” with “partially open”.

 

Pol Gen Aswin said his order was the result of consultations with the BMA committee on communicable disease control, and based on Section 35 of the Communicable Disease Act. The venues to be closed include:

 

- restaurants (except takeout and restaurants serving food for hotel guests)
- shopping malls (except supermarket zones, drugstores or zones selling necessary items and food shops (takeout is permitted)
- markets and weekend markets (except sales of fresh and dried food and cooked meals for takeout, animal feed, drugstores and other necessary items)

- beauty salons, tattoo service shops
- skate and rollerblade venues or other similar services
- amusement parks, bowling lanes, gaming and internet shops
- golf courses or golf driving ranges
- swimming pools or similar service venues
- fighting cock venues 
- Buddha amulet sales stalls
- exhibition and convention centres
- educational institutions at all levels including tuition schools
- weight-control services and cosmetic clinics
- health spas, animal spas, massage parlours, herbal treatment centres, cinemas, theatres
- entertainment places, boxing stadiums and boxing schools, sports stadiums and horse race tracks.

 

Those who violate the closure order are liable to a jail term of up to one year and/or a fine of up to 100,000 baht.

 

Whether the shutdown now in effect in Bangkok is extended to other provinces will depend largely on the willingness of citizens to follow the government’s advice to stay home if possible.

 

The central government is hoping that it will not have to enforce a nationwide lockdown, said Ms Narumon, but it is preparing for the possibility just the same.

 

“We’re ready to announce the most intense measures when the time comes,” she said. “The administration’s priority is ensuring the safety of Thai people.”

 

Further action would be taken step-by-step to minimise disruption as much as possible, she said.

 

The World Health Organization said on Friday that it suspects community transmission in Thailand is increasing and that social distancing is becoming increasingly important..

 

Family members and guests mask up at the wedding of Apichai Chuasawad and Saisithorn Yunnathai at the Priest Hospital in Bangkok on Saturday. (Photo by Wichan Charoenkiatpakul)

[Yamato]

 

The infamous Pattaya Walking Street, you will never believe this is it

 

For those who may know the other infamouse Pattaya spot, Soi Buakhao it had now been reduced to this

 

Both videos taken this evening

[Yamato]

https://thethaiger.com/coronavirus/bangkoks-five-surrounding-provinces-also-enforce-closures-supermarkets-stay-open

 

Bangkok’s five surrounding provinces also enforce closures, supermarkets stay open
The Thaiger Published 58 mins ago on  March 22, 2020

 

PHOTO: Some panic buying has started but authorities assure customers there are NO SHORTAGES - Thai PBS World

 

Five provinces neighbouring the Thai capital are now following suit and ordering the temporary closure of some shops and stores from today up to April 12. The five provinces are Samut Prakarn, Samut Sakhon, Nakhon Pathom, Nonthaburi and Pathumthani. The efforts are designed to slow the spread of the Covid-19 coronavirus in and around Greater Bangkok.

 

Yesterday 89 new cases were announced for Thailand taking the current total to 411 cases. Full list of closures below.

 

The communicable diseases committees of each of the five provinces decided yesterday to take the lead from the Bangkok Metropolitan Authority. They all stressed that there is no need for panic buying as there is no shortage of food and consumables.

 

Yesterday, following the announcement from the BMA, supermarkets around the capital had a sudden surge of panic buyers.

 

The affected venues covered in the closures are department stores and some places where the public gather BUT exempts supermarkets and convenience stores. For their part, CP All, the owners of the country’s 7-11 stores, says they WILL remain open at this time. The only difference is that people will not be able to sit down at the chairs and tables in some stores after buying their food.

 

Meanwhile, some provinces bordering foreign countries are temporarily closing some permanent crossings in a move to slow the escalation of the Covid-19 situation.

 

The official order listed the following establishments…

 

- Spa, health and massage parlours
- Weight loss clinics
- Skating and roller blade rings
- Beauty salons
- Bowling alleys
- Theme parks
- Golf courses & driving rangesPublic swimming pools
- Tattoo parlours
- Nurseries
- Cock-fight rings
- Conference facilities
- Exhibition halls
- Amulet trading grounds
- Markets (excluding markets that offer fresh food, vegetables and food stalls)
- All shopping malls (excluding the supermarket section)
- All public and private educational institutions

[Yamato]

Went to Gian's of Pattaya for the first time (Friday) for dinner. A very classy place I must say good for a romantic evening

 

 

Our first Primitivo

 

An excellent well balance, rich and surprisingly smooth red

 

Simple pasta bread

 

Didn't order much just 3 items. White asparagus

 

Cold cuts

 

and 1 main to share, Canadian lobster

 

2nd Primitivo before the main arrive

 

Grilled and with angle hair simply saute with olive oil and garlic

 

Sweet

 

Finished with a sorbet

[Yamato]

Pattaya devastated by the Chinese virus

 

 

 

[Standing Birdy]

Tiagong most hydrotherapy has stopped

Those that still open have measures to make hydrotherapy safer

 

 

[Yamato]

Cannot go home but can still eat laksa in Bangkok thanks to Prima

 

[Yamato]

Social distancing in Thailand people queuing to buy cooked food home or delivery

 

 

 

 

 

Even many roadside stalls practice this they lay out chairs 1.5m apart for people waiting some don’t have chairs laid out but people now know they automatic distance

[Yamato]

Went out to buy lunch back to office to eat since eating at a restaurant and even a stall had been banned. Surprised even upcountry small stalls adhere to this rule and I'm glad.

 

[Yamato]

I think I haven't had any Campbell's soup for 30 years, this coronavirus gave me a chance to have it again, sweet memories 😋

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2020 by Yamato

[Yamato]

Really envy you guys in Singapore can makan outside, here we all tabao

 

 

Eat in office

[Yamato]

There are talk about great shortages of egg supply and prices of eggs going through the roof. Indeed past few visits to supermarkets saw the egg section empty. Since home is left with only 4 eggs I went out to investigate this morning.

 

Egg situation is not bad if people willing to go wet market instead of supermarkets. So is there a shortage? I'd say no because it’s available in wet markets however due to people panic buying it had caused eggs to be less available but no shortage. 

 

So some shops may run out but other shops available.

 

I went to wet market this morning

 

This egg stall ran out so closed

 

walking further down saw a egg stall left with only duck eggs

 

Then found this full of eggs

 

I bought 7 trays of big size chicken eggs (135 baht per tray $6 or $2 for 10) and 1 tray of big size duck egg (140 baht per tray $6.20 or $2.05 for 10)

 

Smaller eggs selling for 115 baht per tray $5 or about $1.70 for 10 eggs

  

[Yamato]

Something really simple hit and run breakfast